globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0589.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047068193
论文题名:
Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study
作者: Christiansen B.; Alvarez-Castro C.; Christidis N.; Ciavarella A.; Colfescu I.; Cowan T.; Eden J.; Hauser M.; Hempelmann N.; Klehmet K.; Lott F.; Nangini C.; van Oldenborgh G.J.; Orth R.; Stott P.; Tett S.; Vautard R.; Wilcox L.; Yiou P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:9
起始页码: 3387
结束页码: 3410
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Climate models ; Ensembles ; Extreme events ; Trends ; Winter/cool season
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Statistics ; Anthropogenic changes ; Anthropogenic climate changes ; Ensembles ; Extreme events ; Heavy-tailed distribution ; Local standard deviation ; Trends ; Winter/cool seasons ; Climate change ; anthropogenic effect ; climate change ; climate modeling ; ensemble forecasting ; extreme event ; trend analysis ; winter ; Europe
英文摘要: An attribution study has been performed to investigate the degree to which the unusually cold European winter of 2009/10 was modified by anthropogenic climate change. Two different methods have been included for the attribution: one based on large HadGEM3-A ensembles and one based on a statistical surrogate method. Both methods are evaluated by comparing simulated winter temperature means, trends, standard deviations, skewness, return periods, and 5% quantiles with observations. While the surrogate method performs well, HadGEM3-A in general underestimates the trend in winter by a factor of 2/3. It has a mean cold bias dominated by the mountainous regions and also underestimates the cold 5% quantile in many regions of Europe. Both methods show that the probability of experiencing a winter as cold as 2009/10 has been reduced by approximately a factor of 2 because of anthropogenic changes. The method based on HadGEM3-A ensembles gives somewhat larger changes than the surrogate method because of differences in the definition of the unperturbed climate. The results are based on two diagnostics: the coldest day in winter and the largest continuous area with temperatures colder than twice the local standard deviation. The results are not sensitive to the choice of bias correction except in the mountainous regions. Previous results regarding the behavior of the measures of the changed probability have been extended. The counterintuitive behavior for heavy-tailed distributions is found to hold for a range of measures and for events that become more rare in a changed climate. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111548
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Christiansen B.,Alvarez-Castro C.,Christidis N.,et al. Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(9)
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