globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0521.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047060417
论文题名:
Toward predicting changes in the land monsoon rainfall a decade in advance
作者: Wang B.; Li J.; Cane M.A.; Liu J.; Webster P.J.; Xiang B.; Kim H.-M.; Cao J.; Ha K.-J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:7
起始页码: 2699
结束页码: 2714
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate prediction ; Decadal variability ; Monsoons
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Atmospheric thermodynamics ; Forecasting ; Rain ; Surface waters ; Atmosphere-ocean interactions ; Climate prediction ; Decadal variability ; Monsoons ; Numerical experiments ; Sea surface temperature (SST) ; Southern oscillation ; Sustainable economic development ; Oceanography ; air-sea interaction ; climate prediction ; decadal variation ; monsoon ; Northern Hemisphere ; precipitation (climatology) ; rainfall ; tropical environment ; Africa ; Far East ; India ; North America
英文摘要: Predictions of changes of the land monsoon rainfall (LMR) in the coming decades are of vital importance for successful sustainable economic development. Current dynamic models, though, have shown little skill in the decadal prediction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) LMR (NHLMR). The physical basis and predictability for such predictions remain largely unexplored. Decadal change of the NHLMR reflects changes in the total NH continental precipitation, tropical general circulation, and regional land monsoon rainfall over northern Africa, India, East Asia, and North America. Using observations from 1901 to 2014 and numerical experiments, it is shown that the decadal variability of the NHLMR is rooted primarily in (i) the north-south hemispheric thermal contrast in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector measured by the North Atlantic-south Indian Ocean dipole (NAID) sea surface temperature (SST) index and (ii) an east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific measured by an extended El Niño-Southern Oscillation (XEN) index. Results from a 500-yr preindustrial control experiment demonstrate that the leading mode of decadal NHLMR and the associated NAID and XEN SST anomalies may be largely an internal mode of Earth's climate system, although possibly modified by natural and anthropogenic external forcing. A 51-yr, independent forward-rolling decadal hindcast was made with a hybrid dynamic conceptual model and using the NAID index predicted by a multiclimate model ensemble. The results demonstrate that the decadal changes in the NHLMR can be predicted approximately a decade in advance with significant skills, opening a promising way forward for decadal predictions of regional land monsoon rainfall worldwide. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111590
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; Jiangsu Provincial State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Wang B.,Li J.,Cane M.A.,et al. Toward predicting changes in the land monsoon rainfall a decade in advance[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(7)
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