DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0368.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047061057
论文题名: Dominant modes of subseasonal variability of East Asian summertime surface air temperature and their predictions
作者: Liang P. ; Lin H. ; Ding Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 7 起始页码: 2729
结束页码: 2743
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anomalies
; Atmospheric circulation
; Intraseasonal variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Teleconnections
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Mechanical waves
; Ocean currents
; Orthogonal functions
; Anomalies
; Atmospheric circulation
; Intraseasonal variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Teleconnections
; Forecasting
; air temperature
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric circulation
; empirical orthogonal function analysis
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Rossby wave
; seasonal variation
; summer
; surface temperature
; teleconnection
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Far East
英文摘要: Subseasonal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over East Asia is analyzed using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis of 34 Northern Hemisphere extended summers. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed with pentad SAT data to identify the leading modes of subseasonal SAT variability. The first (EOF1) and second (EOF2) modes, which together account for about 35% of the total variance, correspond to a monopole structure of SAT anomaly in the whole East Asian region and a dipole structure with opposite signs of variability over the north and south East Asian continent, respectively. Lead-lag regressions are calculated in order to analyze how the large-scale atmospheric circulation evolves in association with the development of the leading SAT modes. An eastward propagation of the Rossby wave from the midlatitude Atlantic Ocean is observed about three pentads before EOF1. EOF2 is influenced by both the tropical Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and a midlatitude wave train. These results indicate that there is potential for prediction of the dominant SAT modes on the subseasonal time scale. The subseasonal prediction of the two dominant modes is further evaluated in the operational monthly forecasting system of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The model shows a better forecast skill than the persistence forecast. The strength of the subseasonal signal in initial conditions impacts the forecast skill. The forecasts starting with strong EOF in the initial condition are more skillful than those initialized with weak EOF. The findings in the study contribute to improving the understanding of the subseasonal variability and SAT subseasonal forecasting in East Asia. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111592
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Shanghai Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China; Recherche en Prévision Numérique Atmosphérique, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Liang P.,Lin H.,Ding Y.. Dominant modes of subseasonal variability of East Asian summertime surface air temperature and their predictions[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(7)