| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0449.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85047065268
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| 论文题名: | Heat stress changes over East Asia under 1.5° and 2.0°C global warming targets |
| 作者: | Lee S.-M.; Min S.-K.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 31, 期:7 | | 起始页码: | 2819
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| 结束页码: | 2831
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Climate models
; Extreme events
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate change
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Area fraction
; Emission scenario
; Extreme events
; Multi-Model Simulations
; North Pacific
; Ocean surfaces
; Target temperature
; Wet-bulb globe temperatures
; Thermal stress
; climate change
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; extreme event
; future prospect
; global warming
; heat wave
; numerical model
; weather forecasting
; Far East
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
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| 英文摘要: | This study provides a first quantification of possible benefits of global warming mitigation through heat stress reduction over East Asia by comparing projection results between low-emission and high-emission scenarios, as well as between 1.5° and 2.0°C target temperature conditions. Future changes in summer heat stress over East Asia were examined based on the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) using CMIP5 multimodel simulations. Changes in the intensity, frequency, and duration of heat stress were analyzed in terms of area fraction across RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios and also between two selected model groups representing 1.5°- and 2.0°C-warmer worlds. Severe heat stress, exceeding the 50-yr return value of the present-day period, is expected to become very frequent, occurring every second year over the large part of East Asia by the 2040s, irrespective of RCP scenarios. The frequency of extreme daily heat stress events is predicted to increase in a similar speed of expansion, with signals emerging from the low latitudes. The WBGT signal emergence is found to be much faster than that of corresponding temperature alone due to the smaller variability in WBGT, supporting previous findings. The 1.5°C-warmer world would have about 20% reduction in areas experiencing severe heat stress over East Asia, compared to the 2.0°C-warmer world, with significant changes identified over the low latitudes. Further, compared to the transient world, the equilibrium world exhibits larger increases in heat stress over East Asia, likely due to the warmer ocean surface in the northwestern North Pacific. This suggests an important role of ocean warming patterns in the regional assessment of global warming mitigation. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111602
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Lee S.-M.,Min S.-K.. Heat stress changes over East Asia under 1.5° and 2.0°C global warming targets[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(7)
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