DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0272.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043687248
论文题名: Multimodel prediction skills of the somali and Maritime Continent cross-equatorial flows
作者: Li C. ; Luo J.-J. ; Li S. ; Hendon H. ; Alves O. ; MacLachlan C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 6 起始页码: 2445
结束页码: 2464
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate prediction
; Seasonal forecasting
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Earth (planet)
; Oceanography
; Anomaly correlations
; Climate prediction
; Cross-equatorial flow
; Multi-model ensemble
; Precipitation anomalies
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal prediction
; Walker circulation
; Forecasting
英文摘要: Predictive skills of the Somali cross-equatorial flow (CEF) and the Maritime Continent (MC) CEF during boreal summer are assessed using three ensemble seasonal forecasting systems, including the coarse-resolution Predictive Ocean Atmospheric Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2), the intermediate-resolution Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change (SINTEX-F), and the high-resolution seasonal prediction version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-S1) model. Retrospective prediction results suggest that prediction of the Somali CEF is more challenging than that of the MC CEF. While both the individual models and the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean show useful skill (with the anomaly correlation coefficient being above 0.5) in predicting the MC CEF up to 5-month lead, only ACCESS-S1 and the MME can skillfully predict the Somali CEF up to 2-month lead. Encouragingly, the CEF seesaw index (defined as the difference of the two CEFs as a measure of the negative phase relation between them) can be skillfully predicted up to 4-5 months ahead by SINTEX-F, ACCESS-S1, and the MME. Among the three models, the high-resolution ACCESS-S1 model generally shows the highest skill in predicting the individual CEFs, the CEF seesaw, as well as the CEF seesaw index-related precipitation anomaly pattern in Asia and northern Australia. Consistent with the strong influence of ENSO on the CEFs, the skill in predicting the CEFs depends on the model's ability in predicting not only the eastern Pacific SST anomaly but also the anomalous Walker circulation that brings ENSO's influence to bear on the CEFs. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111626
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Li C.,Luo J.-J.,Li S.,et al. Multimodel prediction skills of the somali and Maritime Continent cross-equatorial flows[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(6)