DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0445.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043716911
论文题名: Unraveling causes for the changing behavior of the tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades
作者: Zhang L. ; Han W. ; Sienzn F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 6 起始页码: 2377
结束页码: 2388
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate variability
; Climate variability
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Volcanoes
; Anthropogenic warming
; Climate variability
; Ensemble simulation
; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations
; Inter-decadal variability
; Internal variability
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Tropical Indian ocean
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; global warming
; sea surface temperature
; trend analysis
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Observations show that decadal (10-20 yr) to interdecadal (> 20 yr) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) closely follows that of the Pacific until the 1960s. Since then, the TIO SST exhibits a persistent warming trend, whereas the Pacific SST shows large-amplitude fluctuations associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and the decadal variability of the TIO SST is out of phase with that of the Pacific after around 1980. Here causes for the changing behavior of the TIO SST are explored, by analyzing multiple observational datasets and the recently available large-ensemble simulations from two climate models. It is found that on interdecadal time scales, the persistent TIO warming trend is caused by emergence of anthropogenic warming overcoming internal variability, while the time of emergence occurs much later in the Pacific. On decadal time scales, two major tropical volcanic eruptions occurred in the 1980s and 1990s causing decadal SST cooling over the TIO during which the IPO was in warm phase, yielding the out-of-phase relation. The more evident fingerprints of external forcing in the TIO compared to the Pacific result from the much weaker TIO internal decadal-interdecadal variability, making the TIO prone to the external forcing. These results imply that the ongoing warming and natural external forcing may make the Indian Ocean more active, playing an increasingly important role in affecting regional and global climate. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111631
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Zhang L.,Han W.,Sienzn F.. Unraveling causes for the changing behavior of the tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(6)