DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0396.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040632322
论文题名: Predictability and prediction of Southern California rains during strong El Niño events: A focus on the failed 2016 winter rains
作者: Zhang T. ; Hoerling M.P. ; Wolter K. ; Eischeid J. ; Cheng L. ; Hoell A. ; Perlwitz J. ; Quan X.-W. ; Barsugli J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 2 起始页码: 555
结束页码: 574
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Interannual variability
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
; Seasonal forecasting
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Nickel
; Rain
; Atmospheric model simulations
; Climate variability
; Interannual variability
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
; Probability of occurrence
; Seasonal forecasting
; Southern California
; Subseasonal variability
; Forecasting
; annual variation
; climate variation
; drought
; El Nino
; prediction
; rainfall
; weather forecasting
; winter
; California
; United States
英文摘要: The failed Southern California (SCAL) winter rains during the 2015/16 strong El Niño came as a surprise and a disappointment. Similarities were drawn to very wet winters during several historical strong El Niño events, leading to heightened expectations that SCAL's multiyear drought would abate in 2016. Ensembles of atmospheric model simulations and coupled model seasonal forecasts are diagnosed to determine both the potential predictability and actual prediction skill of the failed rains, with a focus on understanding the striking contrast of SCAL precipitation between the 2016 and 1998 strong El Niño events. The ensemble mean of simulations indicates that the December-February 2016 winter dryness was not a response to global boundary forcings, which instead generated a wet SCAL signal. Nor was the extreme magnitude of observed 1998 wetness entirely reconcilable with a boundary-forced signal, indicating it was not a particularly precise analog for 2016. Furthermore, model simulations indicate the SCAL 2016 wet signal was 20%-50% less intense than its simulated 1998 counterpart. Such a weaker signal was captured in November 2015 initialized seasonal forecasts, indicating dynamical model skill in predicting a less prolific 2016 rainy season and a capability to forewarn that 2016 would not likely experience the flooding rains of 1998. Analysis of ensemble spread indicates that 2016 dryness was an extreme climate event having less than 5% likelihood in the presence of 2016 global forcings, even though its probability of occurrence was 3-4 times greater in 2016 compared to 1998. Therefore, the failed seasonal rains themselves are argued to be primarily a symptom of subseasonal variability unrelated to boundary forcings whose predictability remains to be explored. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111701
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhang T.,Hoerling M.P.,Wolter K.,et al. Predictability and prediction of Southern California rains during strong El Niño events: A focus on the failed 2016 winter rains[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(2)