DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0145.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040536448
论文题名: Role of equatorial Pacific SST forecast error in the late winter California precipitation forecast for the 2015/16 El Niño
作者: Jong B.-T. ; Ting M. ; Seager R. ; Henderson N. ; Lee D.E.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 2 起始页码: 839
结束页码: 852
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; El Nino
; North America
; Pacific Ocean
; Seasonal forecasting
; Teleconnections
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Earth atmosphere
; Forecasting
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Climate variability
; EL Nino
; North America
; Pacific ocean
; Seasonal forecasting
; Teleconnections
; Weather forecasting
; atmospheric general circulation model
; atmospheric modeling
; climate change
; El Nino
; ensemble forecasting
; sea surface temperature
; seasonality
; teleconnection
; California
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
; United States
英文摘要: During the strong 2015/16 El Niño, only normal to below-average precipitation fell across California in the late winter. This disagrees with both predictions by the ensemble mean of forecast models and expectations for strong El Niños. The authors examine one of the possible reasons why this event did not bring expected precipitation to California in the late winter. The maximum equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) were located, compared to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 strong El Niños, farther to the west in the 2015/16 winter, which possibly caused less convection in the eastern tropical Pacific and shifted the teleconnection patterns westward in the North Pacific, thus weakening the influences on California. The SSTA and precipitation forecast for February-April 2016, based on the North American Multimodel Ensemble, showed large discrepancies from observations, with the ensemble mean of most of the models overestimating SSTAs in the eastern tropical Pacific and California precipitation. Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that the warmer eastern tropical Pacific SSTA forecast may have caused the wetter forecast in California in 2015/16 compared to observations. The AGCM experiments suggest it is difficult to assert that the eastern tropical Pacific SSTAs caused the too-wet California precipitation forecast, especially in Southern California, given that the models disagree. Results indicate forecast error can be influenced by atmosphere-model sensitivity to forecast SSTs, but they also indicate atmospheric internal variability may have been responsible for the combination of a strong El Niño and near-normal California precipitation. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111710
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jong B.-T.,Ting M.,Seager R.,et al. Role of equatorial Pacific SST forecast error in the late winter California precipitation forecast for the 2015/16 El Niño[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(2)