DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0172.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040602791
论文题名: Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the contiguous United States
作者: Cook B.I. ; Park Williams A. ; Mankin J.S. ; Seager R. ; Smerdon J.E. ; Singh D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 1 起始页码: 25
结束页码: 43
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought
; North America
Scopus关键词: Moisture
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Surface waters
; Atmospheric dynamics
; Atmospheric variability
; Historical observation
; North America
; Precipitation variability
; Sea surface temperatures
; Seasonal prediction
; Strong correlation
; Drought
; coastal zone
; drought
; extreme event
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; summer
; warming
; California
; Oregon
; Pacific Ocean
; United States
; Washington [United States]
英文摘要: Coastal droughts that simultaneously affect California, Oregon, and Washington are rare, but they have extensive and severe impacts (e.g., wildfire and agriculture). To better understand these events, historical observations are used to investigate 1) drought variability along the Pacific coast of the contiguous United States and 2) years when extreme drought affects the entire coast. The leading pattern of cold-season (October-March) precipitation variability along the Pacific coast favors spatially coherent moisture anomalies, accounting for > 40% of the underlying variance, and is forced primarily by internal atmospheric dynamics. This contrasts with a much weaker dipole mode (~20% of precipitation variability) characterized by antiphased moisture anomalies across 40°N and strong correlations with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Sixteen coastal-wide summer droughts occurred from 1895 to 2016 (clustering in the 1920s-1930s and post-2000), events most strongly linked with the leading precipitation mode and internal atmospheric variability. The frequency of landfalling atmospheric rivers south of 40°N is sharply reduced during coastal droughts but not north of this boundary, where their frequency is more strongly influenced by the dipole. The lack of a consistent pattern of SST forcing during coastal droughts suggests little potential for skillful seasonal predictions. However, their tendency to cluster in time and the impact of warming during recent droughts may help inform decadal and longer-term drought risks. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111724
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States; Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States; Tree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cook B.I.,Park Williams A.,Mankin J.S.,et al. Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the contiguous United States[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(1)