DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0292.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040605461
论文题名: Projection of North Pacific tropical upper-tropospheric trough in CMIP5 models: Implications for changes in tropical cyclone formation locations
作者: Wang C. ; Wu L.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 2 起始页码: 761
结束页码: 774
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric aerosols
; Atmospheric composition
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Hurricanes
; Location
; Storms
; Tropics
; Troposphere
; Climate variability
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Intermodel variability
; Solar forcing
; Spatial patterns
; SST anomalies
; Tropical cyclone
; Western North Pacific
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; CMIP
; global warming
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; tropical cyclone
; troposphere
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The strong westerly shear to the south flank of the tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) limits the eastward extension of tropical cyclone (TC) formation over the western North Pacific (WNP) and thus the zonal shift of the TUTT in warming scenarios has an important implication for the mean formation location of TCs. The impact of global warming on the zonal shift of the TUTT is investigated by using output from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of 36 climate models in this study. It is found that considerable spread exists in the zonal position, orientation, and intensity of the simulated-climatologic TUTT in the historical runs, which is forced by observed conditions such as changes in atmospheric composition, solar forcing, and aerosols. The large spread is closely related to the diversity in the simulated SST biases over the North Pacific. Based on the 15 models with relatively high skill in their historical runs, the near-term (2016-35) projection shows no significant change of the TUTT longitude, while the TUTT experiences an eastward shift of 1.9° and 3.2° longitude in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the long-term (2081-2100) projection with considerable intermodel variability. Further examination indicates that the projected changes in the zonal location of the TUTT are also associated with the projected relative SST anomalies over the North Pacific. A stronger (weaker) relative SST warming over the North Pacific favors an eastward (westward) shift of the TUTT, suggesting that the spatial pattern of the future SST change is an important factor for the zonal shift of the mean formation location of TCs. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111725
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, China; Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Wang C.,Wu L.. Projection of North Pacific tropical upper-tropospheric trough in CMIP5 models: Implications for changes in tropical cyclone formation locations[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(2)