DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0131.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040595628
论文题名: Seasonal prediction of winter precipitation anomalies over central Southwest Asia: A canonical correlation analysis approach
作者: Rana S. ; Renwick J. ; McGregor J. ; Singh A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 2 起始页码: 727
结束页码: 741
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought
; Interannual variability
; Precipitation
; Sea surface temperature
; Seasonal forecasting
; Statistical forecasting
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Correlation methods
; Drought
; Fighter aircraft
; Forecasting
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Water resources
; Canonical correlation analysis
; Interannual variability
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Regional water resources
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasting
; Southern oscillation
; Statistical forecasting
; Oceanography
; annual variation
; canonical analysis
; drought
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; weather forecasting
; winter
; Asia
英文摘要: Central southwest Asia (CSWA; 20°-47°N, 40°-85°E) is a water-stressed region prone to significant variations in precipitation during its winter precipitation season of November-April. Wintertime precipitation is crucial for regional water resources, agriculture, and livelihood; however, in recent years droughts have been a notable feature of CSWA interannual variability. Here, the predictability of CSWA wintertime precipitation is explored based on its time-lagged relationship with the preceding months' (September-October) sea surface temperature (SST), using a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) approach. For both periods, results indicate that for CSWA much of the seasonal predictability arises from SST variations in the Pacific related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Additional sources of skill that play a weaker predictive role include long-term SST trends, North Atlantic variability, and regional teleconnections. CCA cross-validation skill shows that the regional potential predictability has a strong dependency on the ENSO phenomenon, and the strengthening (weakening) of this relationship yields forecasts with higher (lower) predictive skill. This finding is validated by the mean cross-validated correlation skill of 0.71 and 0.38 obtained for the 1980/81-2014/15 and 1950/51-2014/15 CCA analyses, respectively. The development of cold (warm) ENSO conditions during September-October, in combination with cold (warm) PDO conditions, is associated with a northward (southward) shift of the jet stream and a strong tendency of negative (positive) winter precipitation anomalies; other sources of predictability influence the regional precipitation directly during non-ENSO years or by modulating the impact of ENSO teleconnection based on their relative strengths. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111730
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, India
Recommended Citation:
Rana S.,Renwick J.,McGregor J.,et al. Seasonal prediction of winter precipitation anomalies over central Southwest Asia: A canonical correlation analysis approach[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(2)