DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0482.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040610855
论文题名: On the emergent constraints of climate sensitivity
作者: Qu X. ; Hall A. ; DeAngelis A.M. ; Zelinka M.D. ; Klein S.A. ; Su H. ; Tian B. ; Zhai C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 2 起始页码: 863
结束页码: 875
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Climate sensitivity
; Clouds
; Feedback
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Clouds
; Feedback
; Climate sensitivity
; Cloud feedbacks
; Constraint-based
; Current generation
; Model ensembles
; Potential constraints
; Surface temperatures
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate feedback
; climate modeling
; cloud
; sensitivity analysis
英文摘要: Differences among climate models in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) remain a significant barrier to the accurate assessment of societally important impacts of climate change. Relationships between ECS and observable metrics of the current climate in model ensembles, so-called emergent constraints, have been used to constrain ECS. Here a statistical method (including a backward selection process) is employed to achieve a better statistical understanding of the connections between four recently proposed emergent constraint metrics and individual feedbacks influencing ECS. The relationship between each metric and ECS is largely attributable to a statistical connection with shortwave low cloud feedback, the leading cause of intermodel ECS spread. This result bolsters confidence in some of the metrics, which had assumed such a connection in the first place. Additional analysis is conducted with a few thousand artificial metrics that are randomly generated but are well correlated with ECS. The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus, any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. In addition, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111733
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Cloud Processes Research Group, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Qu X.,Hall A.,DeAngelis A.M.,et al. On the emergent constraints of climate sensitivity[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(2)