DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.02.009
论文题名: Separate and combined effects of temperature and precipitation change on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa for mid- to late-21st century
作者: Waha K. ; Müller C. ; Rolinski S.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8282
出版年: 2013
卷: 106 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 12
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Hierarchical cluster analysis
; Temperature stress
; Water stress
; Wet season
Scopus关键词: Abiotic stress factors
; Agricultural development
; Crop growth and development
; Growth and development
; Hierarchical cluster analysis
; Temperature stress
; Water stress
; Wet season
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Cluster analysis
; Crops
; Forestry
; Grain (agricultural product)
; Hierarchical systems
; Lasers
; Separation
; Temperature
; Vegetation
; Climate change
; climate change
; cluster analysis
; crop yield
; growth rate
; hierarchical system
; maize
; precipitation intensity
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temperature effect
; twenty first century
; water stress
; Sub-Saharan Africa
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Maize ( Zea mays L ) is one of the most important food crops and very common in all parts of sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010 53. million tons of maize were produced in sub-Saharan Africa on about one third of the total harvested cropland area (~. 33. million ha). Our aim is to identify the limiting agroclimatic variable for maize growth and development in sub-Saharan Africa by analyzing the separated and combined effects of temperature and precipitation. Under changing climate, both climate variables are projected to change severely, and their impacts on crop yields are frequently assessed using process-based crop models. However it is often unclear which agroclimatic variable will have the strongest influence on crop growth and development under climate change and previous studies disagree over this question.We create synthetic climate data in order to study the effect of large changes in the length of the wet season and the amount of precipitation during the wet season both separately and in combination with changes in temperature. The dynamic global vegetation model for managed land LPJmL is used to simulate maize yields under current and future climatic conditions for the two 10-year periods 2056-2065 and 2081-2090 for three climate scenarios for the A1b emission scenario but without considering the beneficial CO2 fertilization effect.The importance of temperature and precipitation effects on maize yields varies spatially and we identify four groups of crop yield changes: regions with strong negative effects resulting from climate change (<-. 33% yield change), regions with moderate (-. 33% to -. 10% yield change) or slight negative effects (-. 10% to +. 6% yield change), and regions with positive effects arising from climate change mainly in currently temperature-limited high altitudes (>+6% yield change). In the first three groups temperature increases lead to maize yield reductions of 3 to 20%, with the exception of mountainous and thus cooler regions in South and East Africa. A reduction of the wet season precipitation causes decreases in maize yield of at least 30% and prevails over the effect of increased temperatures in southern parts of Mozambique and Zambia, the Sahel and parts of eastern Africa in the two projection periods. This knowledge about the limiting abiotic stress factor in each region will help to prioritize future research needs in modeling of agricultural systems as well as in drought and heat stress breeding programs and to identify adaption options in agricultural development projects. On the other hand the study enhances the understanding of temperature and water stress effects on crop yields in a global vegetation model in order to identify future research and model development needs. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84875613176&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2013.02.009&partnerID=40&md5=0f0d882c3b0f702f9e13d48743448775
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11188
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Research Domain on Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Waha K.,Müller C.,Rolinski S.. Separate and combined effects of temperature and precipitation change on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa for mid- to late-21st century[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2013-01-01,106.