DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2018.06.011
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049332708
论文题名: A dynamic emulator for physically based flow simulators under varying rainfall and parametric conditions
作者: Moreno-Rodenas A.M. ; Bellos V. ; Langeveld J.G. ; Clemens F.H.L.R.
刊名: Water Research
ISSN: 431354
出版年: 2018
卷: 142 起始页码: 512
结束页码: 527
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 2D shallow water equations
; Emulator
; Flow modelling
; Surrogate model
; Uncertainty propagation
; Unit hydrograph
Scopus关键词: Computation theory
; Equations of motion
; Fuel additives
; Hydrodynamics
; Model structures
; Real time control
; Simulators
; Uncertainty analysis
; 2D shallow water equations
; Emulator
; Flow modelling
; Surrogate model
; Uncertainty propagation
; Unit hydrograph
; Rain
; element
; rain
; surface water
; equipment
; flood control
; flow modeling
; hydrodynamics
; hydrological modeling
; methodology
; parameter estimation
; rainfall
; real time
; shallow-water equation
; simulator
; two-dimensional modeling
; uncertainty analysis
; accuracy
; Article
; catchment
; error
; flooding
; flow
; hydrodynamics
; hydrography
; mathematical analysis
; methodology
; nonlinear system
; priority journal
; time series analysis
; water flow
英文摘要: This work presents a method to emulate the flow dynamics of physically based hydrodynamic simulators under variations of time-dependent rainfall and parametric scenarios. Although surrogate modelling is often employed to deal with the computational burden of this type of simulators, common techniques used for model emulation as polynomial expansions or Gaussian processes cannot deal with large parameter space dimensionality. This restricts their applicability to a reduced number of static parameters under a fixed rainfall process. The technique presented combines the use of a modified Unit Hydrograph (UH) scheme and a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to emulate flow from physically based hydrodynamic models. The novel element of the proposed methodology is that the emulator compensates for the errors induced by the assumptions of proportionality and superposition of the UH theory when dealing with non-linear model structures, whereas it approximates properly the behaviour of a physically based simulator to new (spatially-uniform) rainfall time-series and parametric scenarios. The computational time is significantly reduced, which makes the practical use of the model feasible (e.g. real time control, flood warning schemes, hydraulic structures design, parametric inference etc.). The applicability of this methodology is demonstrated in three case studies, through the emulation of a simplified non-linear tank-in-series routing structure and of the 2D Shallow Water Equations (2D-SWE) solution (FLOW-R2D) in two computational domains. Results indicate that the proposed emulator can approximate with a high degree of accuracy the behaviour of the original models under a wide range of rainfall inputs and parametric values. © 2018 The Authors Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/112639
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Section Sanitary Engineering, Water Management Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, CN 2628, Netherlands; CH2M and Jacobs, United Kingdom; Laboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Greece; Partners4UrbanWater, Javastraat 104A, Nijmegen, MJ 6524, Netherlands; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Deltares, Delft, MH 2600, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Moreno-Rodenas A.M.,Bellos V.,Langeveld J.G.,et al. A dynamic emulator for physically based flow simulators under varying rainfall and parametric conditions[J]. Water Research,2018-01-01,142