DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028438
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052935733
论文题名: Links Between Carbon Monoxide and Climate Indices for the Southern Hemisphere and Tropical Fire Regions
作者: Buchholz R.R. ; Hammerling D. ; Worden H.M. ; Deeter M.N. ; Emmons L.K. ; Edwards D.P. ; Monks S.A.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 17 起始页码: 9786
结束页码: 9800
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon monoxide
; chemistry climate
; statistical models
英文摘要: In the Southern Hemisphere and tropics, the main contribution to carbon monoxide (CO) variability is from fire emissions, which are connected to climate through the availability, type, and dryness of fuel. Here we assess the data-driven relationships between CO and climate, aiming to predict atmospheric loading during fire seasons. Observations of total column CO from the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere satellite instrument are used to build a record of monthly anomalies between 2001 and 2016, focusing on seven biomass burning regions of the Southern Hemisphere and tropics. With the exception of 2015, the range of absolute variability in CO is similar between regions. We model CO anomalies in each of the regions using climate indices for the climate modes: El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Tropical South Atlantic, and Antarctic Oscillation. Stepwise forward and backward variable selection is used to choose from statistical regression models that use combinations of climate indices, at lag times between 1 and 8 months relative to CO anomalies. The Bayesian information criterion selects models with the best predictive power. We find that all climate mode indices are required to model CO in each region, generally explaining over 50% of the variability and over 70% for tropical regions. First-order interaction terms of the climate modes are necessary, producing greatly improved explanation of CO variability over single terms. Predictive capability is assessed for the Maritime Southeast Asia and the predicted peak CO anomaly in 2015 is within 20% of the measurements. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113200
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Buchholz R.R.,Hammerling D.,Worden H.M.,et al. Links Between Carbon Monoxide and Climate Indices for the Southern Hemisphere and Tropical Fire Regions[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(17)