globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028880
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052479333
论文题名:
Forecasting Rapid Drought Intensification Using the Climate Forecast System (CFS)
作者: Lorenz D.J.; Otkin J.A.; Svoboda M.; Hain C.R.; Zhong Y.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期:16
起始页码: 8365
结束页码: 8373
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate Forecast System (CFS) ; drought ; predictability ; U.S. drought monitor
英文摘要: In this study, a statistical method is developed to generate probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM)-depicted drought intensification over two-, four-, and six-week time periods using recent observations and forecast model output from the Climate Forecasting System (CFS). The predictors used include weekly anomalies in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, dew point depression, and soil moisture computed over different time lags. A comparison between the baseline skill obtained using recent observations only and the skill obtained by adding CFS forecast fields as predictors shows that the inclusion of CFS model output leads to only a very modest increase in skill (about 14% increase in variance explained over the central and eastern United States). An analysis of this result reveals that the small increase in skill is due to limited skill in the CFS forecasts themselves, rather than to a time delay in the USDM response to conditions on the ground. Perfect model experiments also show that not all forecast lead times are equally important. For example, in the upper Midwest and western United States, the first two weeks account for at least two thirds of the total realizable skill for a four-week forecast. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113245
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Space Sciences and Engineering Center, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States; Earth Science Branch, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States

Recommended Citation:
Lorenz D.J.,Otkin J.A.,Svoboda M.,et al. Forecasting Rapid Drought Intensification Using the Climate Forecast System (CFS)[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(16)
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