DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028481
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052814027
论文题名: An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability
作者: Dessler A.E. ; Forster P.M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 16 起始页码: 8634
结束页码: 8645
语种: 英语
英文关键词: equilibrium climate sensitivity
; interannual variability
英文摘要: Estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium warming in response to a doubling of CO2) from observations is one of the big problems in climate science. Using observations of interannual climate variations covering the period 2000 to 2017 and a model-derived relationship between interannual variations and forced climate change, we estimate that ECS is likely 2.4–4.6 K (17–83% confidence interval), with a mode and median value of 2.9 and 3.3 K, respectively. This analysis provides no support for low values of ECS (below 2 K) suggested by other analyses. The main uncertainty in our estimate is not observational uncertainty but rather uncertainty in converting observations of short term, mainly unforced climate variability to an estimate of the response of the climate system to long-term forced warming. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113246
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Dessler A.E.,Forster P.M.. An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(16)