DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028561
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85050826049
论文题名: Dynamics and Predictability of the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Usagi (2013)
作者: Liu S. ; Tao D. ; Zhao K. ; Minamide M. ; Zhang F.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 14 起始页码: 7462
结束页码: 7481
语种: 英语
英文关键词: inner core moisture
; predictability
; rapid intensification
; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: This study explores the dynamics and predictability of the rapid intensification (RI) of Super Typhoon Usagi (2013) through a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation method. The surface maximum wind speed of Usagi, which was an intense category 4 western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC), increased by 33 m s−1 over a 24-hr period. The RI process was captured by the WRF simulation initialized with the global analysis but with a unique forecast challenge of early prediction. We improved the intensity forecasts by assimilating satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors into the WRF-EnKF, which primarily reduced the strength of both the primary and secondary circulations in the TC vortex. Nevertheless, our ensemble forecasts initialized with the EnKF analysis ensemble predicted a significant spread in the intensity with considerable differences in the RI onset timing among individual members. Our analyses show that variation in the RI timing is most sensitive to differences in the initial TC vortex intensity and inner-core moisture. Ensemble members with similar initial intensities but greater tropospheric moisture content exhibited earlier vortex axisymmetrization and consequently earlier RI. Further sensitivity experiments showed that variations in the inner-core moisture content have an immediate impact on the structure and strength of inner-core convection. These variations in inner-core convection gradually caused differences in intensity between the TC vortices. In this study, we highlight the importance of accurate estimates of the inner-core moisture content in the modeling and forecasting of TC intensity. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113509
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Key Lab of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education of China, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Joint Center for Atmospheric Radar Research of CMA/NJU, Beijing, China; Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu S.,Tao D.,Zhao K.,et al. Dynamics and Predictability of the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Usagi (2013)[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(14)