DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028506
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85050396094
论文题名: Toward the Improvement of Subseasonal Prediction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System
作者: Zhu Y. ; Zhou X. ; Li W. ; Hou D. ; Melhauser C. ; Sinsky E. ; Peña M. ; Fu B. ; Guan H. ; Kolczynski W. ; Wobus R. ; Tallapragada V.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 13 起始页码: 6732
结束页码: 6745
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: atmosphere-ocean coupling
; atmospheric convection
; calibration
; ensemble forecasting
; experimental study
; extratropical environment
; geopotential
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Northern Hemisphere
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; tropical environment
; United States
英文摘要: In order to provide ensemble-based subseasonal (weeks 3 and 4) forecasts to support the operational mission of the Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, experiments have been designed through the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project to investigate the predictability in both tropical and extratropical regions. The control experiment simply extends the current operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS; version 11) from 16 to 35 days. In addition to the control, the parallel experiments will be mainly designed to focus on three areas: (1) improving model uncertainty representation for the tropics through stochastic physical perturbations; (2) considering the impact of the ocean by using a two-tiered sea surface temperature approach; and (3) testing a new scale-aware convection scheme to improve the model physics for tropical convection and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecasts. All experiments are initialized every 5 days at 0000 UTC during the period of May 2014–May 2016 (25 months). In the tropics, MJO forecast skill has been improved from an average of 12.5 days (control) to nearly 22 days by combining all three modifications to GEFS. In the extratropics, the ensemble mean anomaly correlation of 500-hPa geopotential height improved over weeks 3 and 4. In addition, the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (of the Northern Hemisphere raw surface temperature (land only) is improved as well. A similar result is found in the Contiguous United States precipitation, although forecast skill is extremely low. Our results imply that calibration may be important and necessary for surface temperature and precipitation forecast for the subseasonal timescale due to the large systematic model errors. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113534
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: EMC, NCEP, NWS, NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; IMSG at EMC, NCEP, NWS, NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; SRG at EMC, NCEP, NWS, NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhu Y.,Zhou X.,Li W.,et al. Toward the Improvement of Subseasonal Prediction in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecast System[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(13)