DOI: 10.1029/2017JD027500
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85050377887
论文题名: Seasonal and Regional Patterns of Future Temperature Extremes: High-Resolution Dynamic Downscaling Over a Complex Terrain
作者: El-Samra R. ; Bou-Zeid E. ; Bangalath H.K. ; Stenchikov G. ; El-Fadel M.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 13 起始页码: 6669
结束页码: 6689
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; complex terrain
; heat waves
; HiRAM
; temperature extremes
; WRF
Scopus关键词: climate change
; complex terrain
; downscaling
; extreme event
; future prospect
; heat wave
; model
; orography
; regional pattern
; resolution
; temperature
; weather forecasting
; Mediterranean Region
英文摘要: The combined impacts of projected/simulated climate change and variability on temperature extremes over a complex topographical terrain along the eastern Mediterranean are assessed in this study. High-resolution dynamical temperature downscaling is conducted for the past (2008) and the near future (until 2050) during eight extreme hot and dry years under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for the downscaling process with two nested resolutions of 9 and 3 km, forced by the global High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at a resolution of 25 km. Climate indices resultant from daily simulated temperature illustrate considerable changes in daily maximum summer and minimum winter temperature extremes during the future simulated years in comparison with the historic 2008 selected as reference and control period. While average yearly temperatures increase in both scenarios and most regions as expected, the seasonal variability is forecasted to intensify even more significantly resulting in colder winter and warmer summer conditions. Moreover, the interseasonal variability was most pronounced in the years with the highest averaged temperatures. A notable increase in the annual incidence of hot nights and heat wave events relative to 2008 conditions is also expected. The orographic complexity resulted in significant regional differences, with the most affected regions experiencing more than a doubling of extreme indices during the hottest and driest years of near-future decades. This strong spatial variability highlights the need for high-resolution downscaling. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113535
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon; Now at Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rafik Hariri University, Meshref, Lebanon; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Physical Science and Engineering Division, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Recommended Citation:
El-Samra R.,Bou-Zeid E.,Bangalath H.K.,et al. Seasonal and Regional Patterns of Future Temperature Extremes: High-Resolution Dynamic Downscaling Over a Complex Terrain[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(13)