globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1029/2017JD027825
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048960797
论文题名:
A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis
作者: Wan W.; Zhao J.; Li H.-Y.; Mishra A.; Hejazi M.; Lu H.; Demissie Y.; Wang H.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期:11
起始页码: 5947
结束页码: 5972
语种: 英语
英文关键词: future droughts ; global ; multimodel analysis ; water management
Scopus关键词: climate effect ; climate modeling ; drought ; extreme event ; future prospect ; global climate ; global perspective ; holistic approach ; hydrological modeling ; index method ; return period ; simulation ; statistical analysis ; water management
英文摘要: This study investigates the impacts of climate change and water management including agricultural irrigation, water withdrawal, and reservoir regulation on future meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts and their connections. The analysis is based on the simulations from four global hydrological models forced with the projections from five global climate models for historical period 1971–2000 and future period 2070–2099 with and without water management. Three unified drought indices, the standardized precipitation index, standardized soil moisture index, and standardized streamflow index, are adopted to represent the meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, respectively. The analysis suggests that the climate-induced drought changes in all three types of droughts are enhanced but in different directions, while water-management-induced changes in agricultural and hydrological droughts are more consistent across space and simulations. Overall, water management activities reduce both the duration and intensity of agricultural droughts by roughly 1 order of magnitude, while increase those of hydrological droughts by up to 50%. Basin-scale analysis reveals that the higher is the intensity of irrigation, the larger will be the water-management-induced drought changes. Due to water management activities at some regions, the return periods of extreme agricultural droughts (in terms of severity) can change from 100 to 300 years or even longer, while typical 100-year hydrological droughts are likely to occur more often for the regions located in 25°N–40°N and 15°S–50°S. This study provides a global view on drought modification in the Anthropocene, which will help improve adaptation strategies for future droughts. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/113719
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, United States; Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, United States; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, United States; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Wan W.,Zhao J.,Li H.-Y.,et al. A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(11)
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