globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/2017JD028161
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045219040
论文题名:
Inconsistent Responses of Hot Extremes to Historical Land Use and Cover Change Among the Selected CMIP5 Models
作者: Li X.; Chen H.; Wei J.; Hua W.; Sun S.; Ma H.; Li X.; Li J.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期:7
起始页码: 3497
结束页码: 3512
语种: 英语
英文关键词: asymmetric response ; CMIP5 ; land use and cover change ; temperature extremes
Scopus关键词: agricultural land ; anthropogenic effect ; asymmetry ; climate modeling ; CMIP ; diurnal variation ; extreme event ; heat flux ; high temperature ; historical record ; land cover ; land use change ; low temperature ; turbulence ; India ; North America ; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
英文摘要: Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. Previous studies have demonstrated that LUCC significantly impacts both mean and extreme temperatures. In this study, we explored the multimodel performance of simulating LUCC-induced asymmetric effects on the different percentiles of maximum temperatures (Tmax) as well as the possible reasons for these effects using results from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Four state-of-art Earth system models (which provide the necessary data) are selected for investigating this issue. In general, all the cases of the model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory show robust asymmetric responses between the 90th (TX90P) and 10th percentiles (TX10P) of Tmax, mainly due to cropland expansions, especially over India, the Sahel, and some parts of North America. However, weak and insignificant responses are shown for both the TX90P and TX10P in other models. The different changes in the Tmax variability among the models are primarily responsible for the occurrence of asymmetric features. Furthermore, by decomposing the Tmax changes over three typical regions, we analyze the potential causes for the inconsistencies among these models' results and find two crucial processes, that is, the repartitioning of the turbulent heat fluxes and the changes of the diurnal cycle variability due to LUCC. Whether these processes are pronounced determines the occurrence of the asymmetric Tmax responses. Overall, this study provides a critical clue for reducing the uncertainties of the LUCC effects on temperature extremes, which should be evaluated against observations. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114096
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, NUIST, Nanjing, China; Weather Modification Office, Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau, Harbin, China

Recommended Citation:
Li X.,Chen H.,Wei J.,et al. Inconsistent Responses of Hot Extremes to Historical Land Use and Cover Change Among the Selected CMIP5 Models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(7)
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