DOI: 10.1002/2017JC013410
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043352652
论文题名: Investigating the Uncertainty in Global SST Trends Due to Internal Variations Using an Improved Trend Estimator
作者: Lian T. ; Shen Z. ; Ying J. ; Tang Y. ; Li J. ; Ling Z.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
ISSN: 21699275
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 3 起始页码: 1877
结束页码: 1895
语种: 英语
英文关键词: internal variation
; secular trend
Scopus关键词: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; estimation method
; Indian Ocean Dipole
; least squares method
; long-term change
; sea surface temperature
; threshold
; time series analysis
; trend analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (South)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: A new criterion was proposed recently to measure the influence of internal variations on secular trends in a time series. When the magnitude of the trend is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from internal variations, the sign of the estimated trend can be interpreted as the underlying long-term change. Otherwise, the sign may depend on the period chosen. An improved least squares method is developed here to further reduce the theoretical threshold and is applied to eight sea surface temperature (SST) data sets covering the period 1881–2013 to investigate whether there are robust trends in global SSTs. It is found that the warming trends in the western boundary regions, the South Atlantic, and the tropical and southern-most Indian Ocean are robust. However, robust trends are not found in the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, or the South Indian Ocean. The globally averaged SST and Indian Ocean Dipole indices are found to have robustly increased, whereas trends in the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific, Niño 3.4 SST, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices are within the uncertainty range associated with internal variations. These results indicate that great care is required when interpreting SST trends using the available records in certain regions and indices. It is worth noting that the theoretical threshold can be strongly influenced by low-frequency oscillations, and the above conclusions are based on the assumption that trends are linear. Caution should be exercised when applying the theoretical threshold criterion to real data. © 2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114372
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: State Key Lab of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Hangzhou, China; Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada; Guangdong Key Laboratory of Coastal Ocean Variability and Disaster Prediction, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China
Recommended Citation:
Lian T.,Shen Z.,Ying J.,et al. Investigating the Uncertainty in Global SST Trends Due to Internal Variations Using an Improved Trend Estimator[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans,2018-01-01,123(3)