| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.010
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| 论文题名: | Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways |
| 作者: | Balkovič J.; van der Velde M.; Skalský R.; Xiong W.; Folberth C.; Khabarov N.; Smirnov A.; Mueller N.D.; Obersteiner M.
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| ISSN: | 0921-8532
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 122 | | 起始页码: | 107
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| 结束页码: | 121
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | EPIC
; RCP
; Wheat management
; Wheat yield
; Wheat yield gap
; Wheat yield potential
; World wheat production
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate change
; Cultivation
; Food supply
; Climate models
; Cultivation
; Environmental protection
; Food supply
; Irrigation
; Agricultural management
; Agro-ecosystem modeling
; EPIC
; Implications for futures
; Management flexibility
; RCP
; Wheat yield
; World wheat production
; Irrigation
; Climate change
; agricultural management
; climate change
; crop production
; environmental planning
; food security
; global perspective
; wheat
; agricultural intensification
; concentration (composition)
; crop yield
; cultivation
; fertilizer application
; geographical variation
; irrigation system
; rainfed agriculture
; Eastern Europe
; North America
; Russian Federation
; Triticum aestivum
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| 英文摘要: | Wheat is the third largest crop globally and an essential source of calories in human diets. Maintaining and increasing global wheat production is therefore strongly linked to food security. A large geographic variation in wheat yields across similar climates points to sizeable yield gaps in many nations, and indicates a regionally variable flexibility to increase wheat production. Wheat is particularly sensitive to a changing climate thus limiting management opportunities to enable (sustainable) intensification with potentially significant implications for future wheat production. We present a comprehensive global evaluation of future wheat yields and production under distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agro-ecosystem model. We project, in a geographically explicit manner, future wheat production pathways for rainfed and irrigated wheat systems. We explore agricultural management flexibility by quantifying the development of wheat yield potentials under current, rainfed, exploitable (given current irrigation infrastructure), and irrigated intensification levels. Globally, because of climate change, wheat production under conventional management (around the year 2000) would decrease across all RCPs by 37 to 52 and 54 to 103. Mt in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively. However, the exploitable and potential production gap will stay above 350 and 580. Mt, respectively, for all RCPs and time horizons, indicating that negative impacts of climate change can globally be offset by adequate intensification using currently existing irrigation infrastructure and nutrient additions. Future world wheat production on cropland already under cultivation can be increased by ~. 35% through intensified fertilization and ~. 50% through increased fertilization and extended irrigation, if sufficient water would be available. Significant potential can still be exploited, especially in rainfed wheat systems in Russia, Eastern Europe and North America. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84906726046&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2014.08.010&partnerID=40&md5=9cfbaf6cb3d5e96aa244fee3f6aaef7b
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11438
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystem Services and Management Program, chlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Balkovič J.,van der Velde M.,Skalský R.,et al. Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways[J],2014-01-01,122.
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