DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.011
论文题名: Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models
作者: Stroeve J. ; Notz D.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2015
卷: 135 起始页码: 119
结束页码: 132
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic sea ice
; Future climate change
; Sea ice predictability
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Earth (planet)
; Global warming
; Sea ice
; Arctic sea ice
; Combined analysis
; Future climate
; Internal variability
; Model evaluation
; Policy decisions
; Process-based modeling
; Seasonal prediction
; Ice
英文摘要: We discuss the current understanding of past and future sea-ice evolution as inferred from combining model simulations and observations. In such combined analysis, the models allow us to enhance our understanding behind the observed evolution of sea ice, while the observations allow us to assess how realistically the models represent the processes that govern sea-ice evolution in the real world. Combined, observations and models thus provide robust insights into the functioning of sea ice in the Earth's climate system, and can inform policy decisions related to the future evolution of the ice cover. We find that models and observations agree well on the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to global warming and on the main drivers for the observed retreat. In contrast, a robust reduction of the uncertainty range of future sea-ice evolution remains difficult, in particular since the observational record is often too short to robustly examine the impact of internal variability on model biases. Process-based model evaluation and model evaluation based on seasonal-prediction systems provide promising ways to overcome these limitations. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84954089616&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2015.10.011&partnerID=40&md5=0363f1b3eea6e283f877f829fa1954ab
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11455
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University of Colorado (CU), Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stroeve J.,Notz D.. Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2015-01-01,135.