DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027445
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042228541
论文题名: Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013–2014 Summer Season
作者: Zhu K. ; Xue M. ; Zhou B. ; Zhao K. ; Sun Z. ; Fu P. ; Zheng Y. ; Zhang X. ; Meng Q.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2018
卷: 123, 期: 2 起始页码: 1037
结束页码: 1064
语种: 英语
英文关键词: convection-permitting precipitation forecasting
; precipitation forecast verification
; propagation and diurnal cycle of precipitation
; spatial distribution of precipitation
Scopus关键词: atmospheric convection
; diurnal variation
; forecasting method
; mesoscale meteorology
; performance assessment
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainband
; raingauge
; real time
; spatial distribution
; summer
; China
英文摘要: Forecasts at a 4 km convection-permitting resolution over China during the summer season have been produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model at Nanjing University since 2013. Precipitation forecasts from 2013 to 2014 are evaluated with dense rain gauge observations and compared with operational global model forecasts. Overall, the 4 km forecasts show very good agreement with observations over most parts of China, outperforming global forecasts in terms of spatial distribution, intensity, and diurnal variation. Quantitative evaluations with the Gilbert skill score further confirm the better performance of the 4 km forecasts over global forecasts for heavy precipitation, especially for the thresholds of 100 and 150 mm d−1. Besides bulk characteristics, the representations of some unique features of summer precipitation in China under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon are further evaluated. These include the northward progression and southward retreat of the main rainband through the summer season, the diurnal variations of precipitation, and the meridional and zonal propagation of precipitation episodes associated with background synoptic flow and the embedded mesoscale convective systems. The 4 km forecast is able to faithfully reproduce most of the features while overprediction of afternoon convection near the southern China coast is found to be a main deficiency that requires further investigations. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/114667
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather, Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms and School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; National Meteorological Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhu K.,Xue M.,Zhou B.,et al. Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013–2014 Summer Season[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2018-01-01,123(2)