| DOI: | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.12.005
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| 论文题名: | On predicting debris flows in arid mountain belts |
| 作者: | Stolle A.; Langer M.; Blöthe J.H.; Korup O.
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| 刊名: | Global and Planetary Change
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| ISSN: | 0921-8181
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 126 | | 起始页码: | 1
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| 结束页码: | 13
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Bayesian logistic regression
; Channel geometry
; Debris flow
; Geomorphometry
; Peak discharge
; Transhimalaya
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| Scopus关键词: | Arid regions
; Catchments
; Discriminant analysis
; Forecasting
; Landforms
; Monte Carlo methods
; Regression analysis
; Remote sensing
; Runoff
; Storms
; Thunderstorms
; Channel geometry
; Debris flows
; Geomorphometry
; Logistic regressions
; Peak discharge
; Transhimalaya
; Debris
; arid environment
; assessment method
; belt
; catchment
; debris flow
; flash flood
; flow velocity
; geometry
; hazard assessment
; humid environment
; morphometry
; mountain region
; peak discharge
; prediction
; reconstruction
; remote sensing
; satellite data
; terrain
; Himalayas
; India
; Jammu and Kashmir
; Ladakh
; Zanskar Himalayas
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| 英文摘要: | The use of topographic metrics for estimating the susceptibility to, and reconstructing the characteristics of, debris flows has a long research tradition, although largely devoted to humid mountainous terrain. The exceptional 2010 monsoonal rainstorms in the high-altitude mountain desert of Ladakh and Zanskar, NW India, were a painful reminder of how susceptible arid regions are to rainfall-triggered flash floods, landslides, and debris flows. The rainstorms of August 4-6 triggered numerous debris flows, killing 182 people, devastating 607 houses, and more than 10 bridges around Ladakh's capital of Leh. The lessons from this disaster motivated us to revisit methods of predicting (a) flow parameters such as peak discharge and maximum velocity from field and remote sensing data, and (b) the susceptibility to debris flows from catchment morphometry. We focus on quantifying uncertainties tied to these approaches. Comparison of high-resolution satellite images pre- and post-dating the 2010 rainstorm reveals the extent of damage and catastrophic channel widening. Computations based on these geomorphic markers indicate maximum flow velocities of 1.6-6.7ms-1 with runout of up to ~10km on several alluvial fans that sustain most of the region's settlements. We estimate median peak discharges of 310-610m3s-1, which are largely consistent with previous estimates. Monte Carlo-based error propagation for a single given flow-reconstruction method returns a variance in discharge similar to one derived from juxtaposing several different flow reconstruction methods. We further compare discriminant analysis, classification tree modelling, and Bayesian logistic regression to predict debris-flow susceptibility from morphometric variables of 171 catchments in the Ladakh Range. These methods distinguish between fluvial and debris flow-prone catchments at similar success rates, but Bayesian logistic regression allows quantifying uncertainties and relationships between potential predictors. We conclude that, in order to be robust and reliable, morphometric reconstruction of debris-flow properties and susceptibility requires careful assessment and reporting of errors and uncertainties. © 2014. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921386153&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2014.12.005&partnerID=40&md5=3b539ff00b92b73c11def4532b2c29e4
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11558
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| Appears in Collections: | 全球变化的国际研究计划
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht Str. 24-25, Potsdam, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Stolle A.,Langer M.,Blöthe J.H.,et al. On predicting debris flows in arid mountain belts[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2015-01-01,126.
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