DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.012
论文题名: Future joint probability behaviors of precipitation extremes across China: Spatiotemporal patterns and implications for flood and drought hazards
作者: Li J. ; Zhang Q. ; Chen Y.D. ; Singh V.P.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2015
卷: 124 起始页码: 107
结束页码: 122
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China
; CMIP5
; Copula
; Extreme precipitation
; Joint return period
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Drought
; Floods
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Probability
; China
; CMIP5
; Copula
; Extreme precipitation
; Joint return period
; Probability distributions
; climate modeling
; drought stress
; extreme event
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; spatiotemporal analysis
; China
英文摘要: Observed daily precipitation from 527 meteorology stations in China during 1960-2005, and simulated daily precipitation from five Earth System Models (ESMs) under historical, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets are analyzed to investigate joint probability behaviors of precipitation extremes in China during 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Five joint return periods based on six extreme precipitation indices are defined. These joint return periods consider co-occurrence of extreme heavy and weak precipitation, as well as joint extreme heavy precipitation events in terms of different combinations of extreme precipitation amount, intensity, fractional contribution to annual precipitation days, and consecutive wet periods. Weather Generator Model (WGEN) is used to downscale the outputs of ESMs, and Copula is applied to construct joint probability distributions. The variations of joint return periods with 5-year marginal values (marginal values larger than their 5-year return period values respectively) and 20-year marginal values are discussed to represent changes in joint probability behaviors. Results show that: (1) during 1960-2005, spatial distributions of joint return periods with 5-year marginal values are similar to those with 20-year marginal values; (2) changes in marginal distributions and bivariate relationships between extreme indices may be the causes of joint probability distribution shift; (3) in general, during 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, there is less co-occurrence of consecutive wet and dry days, and more joint extreme heavy precipitation events with various aspects, implying less risk of co-occurrence of floods and droughts in the same year but higher risk of floods in China. But north China may face higher risk of co-occurrence of severe floods and droughts in the same year; and (4) changes in joint return periods under RCP8.5 are more remarkable than under RCP2.6. Even under RCP2.6, a scenario 2. °C global average warming target is met, the changes in joint return periods are still considerable. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84949114844&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2014.11.012&partnerID=40&md5=5a283e46ed4d6a0a84324f0b2e7e3cb2
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11574
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
Recommended Citation:
Li J.,Zhang Q.,Chen Y.D.,et al. Future joint probability behaviors of precipitation extremes across China: Spatiotemporal patterns and implications for flood and drought hazards[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2015-01-01,124.