DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.09.003
论文题名: CMIP5 downscaling and its uncertainty in China
作者: Yue T. ; Zhao N. ; Fan Z. ; Li J. ; Chen C. ; Lu Y. ; Wang C. ; Xu B. ; Wilson J.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8181
出版年: 2016
卷: 146 起始页码: 30
结束页码: 37
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate scenarios
; Downscaling
; HASM-GB
; HASM-OLS
; Spatial stationarity, non-stationarity
; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Meteorology
; Climate scenarios
; Down-scaling
; HASM-GB
; HASM-OLS
; Non-stationarities
; Uncertainty
; Climate models
英文摘要: A comparison between the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and observations at 735 meteorological stations indicated that mean annual temperature (MAT) was underestimated about 1.8 °C while mean annual precipitation (MAP) was overestimated about 263 mm in general across the whole of China. A statistical analysis of China-CMIP5 data demonstrated that MAT exhibits spatial stationarity, while MAP exhibits spatial non-stationarity. MAT and MAP data from the China-CMIP5 dataset were downscaled by combining statistical approaches with a method for high accuracy surface modeling (HASM). A statistical transfer function (STF) of MAT was formulated using minimized residuals output by HASM with an ordinary least squares (OLS) linear equation that used latitude and elevation as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-OLS. The STF of MAP under a BOX-COX transformation was derived as a combination of minimized residuals output by HASM with a geographically weight regression (GWR) using latitude, longitude, elevation and impact coefficient of aspect as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-GB. Cross validation, using observational data from the 735 meteorological stations across China for the period 1976 to 2005, indicates that the largest uncertainty occurred on the Tibet plateau with mean absolute errors (MAEs) of MAT and MAP as high as 4.64 °C and 770.51 mm, respectively. The downscaling processes of HASM-OLS and HASM-GB generated MAEs of MAT and MAP that were 67.16% and 77.43% lower, respectively across the whole of China on average, and 88.48% and 97.09% lower for the Tibet plateau. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84988353478&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2016.09.003&partnerID=40&md5=7e7ffc010829d46d67a173de2b817b20
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11599
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geograpical Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Yue T.,Zhao N.,Fan Z.,et al. CMIP5 downscaling and its uncertainty in China[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2016-01-01,146.