DOI: 10.3354/cr01447
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020434474
论文题名: Future impacts of climate change on streamflows across Victoria, Australia: Making use of statistical downscaling
作者: Fiddes S. ; Timbal B.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2017
卷: 71, 期: 3 起始页码: 219
结束页码: 236
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Australia
; Catchment modelling
; Climate change
; Climate projections
; Rainfall
; Streamflow
; Victoria
; Water availability
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; global climate
; streamflow
; temperature profile
; temporal variation
; water availability
; Australia
; Victoria [Australia]
英文摘要: Streamflows in key catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia, are projected into the future utilising a previously developed multiple linear regression. The regression uses a temporal range of rainfall and temperature parameters to compute monthly streamflows, and is applied to an ensemble of 22 statistically downscaled global climate models. This method re produced historical streamflows well: on average the reconstruction overestimated the observed mean by 1% and underestimated the observed variance by 2%, although this varied on a catchment-to-catchment basis. Despite the accurate reconstruction of the mean streamflow, no events of similar magnitude to the most severe drought on record (the Millennium drought, 1997-2009) were found in the historical reconstruction for the current climate. Furthermore the reconstructed streamflow did not exhibit declining trends similar to what has been observed, due to the absence of declining rainfall in the climate model simulations for the historical record. Future projections under a high emissions pathway indicate a large reduction (24-87%) in streamflow by the end of the century, with conditions similar to the Millennium drought becoming the norm. The driest 10 yr mean streamflow was found to be 78% worse than the Millennium drought under a high emissions pathway. The greatest reductions in streamflow are seen through the May-November period. This is an important step in understanding how Victoria's water security will be affected by climate change. © Inter-Research 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116332
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Fiddes S.,Timbal B.. Future impacts of climate change on streamflows across Victoria, Australia: Making use of statistical downscaling[J]. Climate Research,2017-01-01,71(3)