DOI: 10.3354/cr01418
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020433226
论文题名: Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections
作者: Belda M. ; Holtanová E. ; Kalvová J. ; Halenka T.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2016
卷: 71, 期: 1 起始页码: 17
结束页码: 31
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate type change
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
; Global climate model
; Köppen-Trewartha climate classification
; Representative concentration pathways
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate classification
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; environmental assessment
; error analysis
; global warming
; integrated approach
; twenty first century
英文摘要: Climate classifications can provide an effective tool for integrated assessment of climate model results. We present an analysis of future global climate projections performed in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project by means of Köppen-Trewartha classification. Maps of future climate type distributions were created along with the analysis of the ensemble spread. The simulations under scenarios with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 showed a substantial decline in ice cap, tundra, and boreal climate in the warming world, accompanied by an expansion of temperate climates, dry climates, and savanna, nearly unanimous within the CMIP5 ensemble. Results for the subtropical climate types were generally not conclusive. Changes in climate zones were also analyzed in comparison with the individual model performance for the historical period 1961-1990. The magnitude of change was higher than model errors only for tundra, boreal, and temperate continental climate types. For other types, the response was mostly smaller than model error, or there was considerable disagreement among the ensemble members. Altogether, around 14% of the continental area is expected to change climate types by the end of the 21st century under the projected RCP4.5 forcing and 20% under the RCP8.5 scenario. © The authors 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116362
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Belda M.,Holtanová E.,Kalvová J.,et al. Global warming-induced changes in climate zones based on CMIP5 projections[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,71(1)