| DOI: | 10.3354/cr01400
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84976350886
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| 论文题名: | Performance of agro-climate indices and wheat grain yield in a changing climate |
| 作者: | Luo Q.
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| 刊名: | Climate Research
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| ISSN: | 0936577X
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 69, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 143
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| 结束页码: | 154
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Flowering
; Frost risk
; Grain filling
; Heat stress
; Soil water deficit
; Wheat
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| Scopus关键词: | agrometeorology
; climate change
; climate modeling
; crop yield
; drought stress
; environmental gradient
; frost
; precipitation intensity
; soil water
; sowing
; sustainable development
; temperature effect
; wheat
; Australia
; New South Wales
; Triticum aestivum
|
| 英文摘要: | This study aimed to assess the performance of 8 agro-climate indices and wheat yield in 2030 and 2050 at 3 locations (Moree, Dubbo and Wagga Wagga) on a north-south climatic gradient in eastern New South Wales, Australia, by coupling downscaled outputs of 4 climate models with a mechanistic wheat model. These locations represent the transition of grain production systems from those with summer-dominant to those with winter-dominant rainfall. Simulation showed (1) ambiguous results in the frequency changes of frost occurrence across locations, phenophases, study period and sowing times; (2) a substantial increase in the frequency of heat stress during the flowering period across sowing times, study periods and locations; (3) a decrease in pre-and postflowering rainfall in most cases; (4) no change in soil water deficit (SWD) in 2030 in 31 out of 42 cases (the combination of 7 sowings, 2 phenophases and 3 locations) and a decrease (by 0.2) or no change in SWD in 2050 in 18 out of 42 cases; and (5) a decrease, increase, or absence of change in wheat yield depending on locations, with sowing times in 2030 increasing more or decreasing less. Changes in wheat grain yield reflected the changing patterns of agro-climate indices. The concurrent occurrence of heat stress and terminal drought at wheat reproductive stages will pose significant challenges for sustainable development of the wheat industry in the future. © 2016 Inter-Research. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116393
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Luo Q.. Performance of agro-climate indices and wheat grain yield in a changing climate[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,69(2)
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