DOI: 10.3354/cr01362
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966658382
论文题名: Systematic temperature and precipitation biases in the CLARIS-LPB ensemble simulations over South America and possible implications for climate projections
作者: Solman S.A.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2016
卷: 68, 期: 2019-02-03 起始页码: 117
结束页码: 136
语种: 英语
英文关键词: La Plata Basin
; Regional climate change
; Regional Climate Models
; South America
; Systematic bias
Scopus关键词: amplification
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate signal
; data set
; ensemble forecasting
; European Union
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; sampling bias
; temperature effect
; La Plata Basin
英文摘要: Within the framework of the CLARIS-LPB EU Project, a suite of 7 coordinated Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations over South America driven by both the ERA-Interim reanalysis and a set of Global Climate Models (GCMs) were evaluated. The systematic biases in simulating monthly mean temperature and precipitation from the 2 sets of RCM simulations were identified. The Climate Research Unit dataset was used as a reference. The systematic model errors were more dependent on the RCMs than on the driving GCMs. Most RCMs showed a systematic temperature overestimation and precipitation underestimation over the La Plata Basin region. Model biases were not invariant, but a temperature-dependent temperature bias and a precipitation-dependent precipitation bias were apparent for the region, with the warm bias amplified for warm months and the dry bias amplified for wet months. In a climate change scenario, the relationship between model bias behaviour and the projected climate change for each individual model revealed that the models with the largest temperature bias amplification projected the largest warming and the models with the largest dry bias amplification projected the smallest precipitation increase, suggesting that models' bias behaviour may affect the future climate projections. After correcting model biases by means of a quantile-based mapping bias correction method, projected temperature changes were systematically reduced, and projected precipitation changes were systematically increased. Though applying bias correction method - ologies to projected climate conditions is controversial, this study demonstrates that bias correction methodologies should be considered in order to better interpret climate change signals. © Inter-Research 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116400
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Solman S.A.. Systematic temperature and precipitation biases in the CLARIS-LPB ensemble simulations over South America and possible implications for climate projections[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,68(2019-02-03)