DOI: 10.3354/cr01388
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966601930
论文题名: Changes in precipitation over the la Plata Basin, projected by CLARIS-LPB regional models
作者: De Albuquerque Cavalcanti I.F. ; Silveira V.P.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2016
卷: 68, 期: 2019-02-03 起始页码: 169
结束页码: 182
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Frequency of extremes
; La Plata Basin
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation indices
; Precipitation variability
; Regional models
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; climate signal
; extreme event
; frequency analysis
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; uncertainty analysis
; La Plata Basin
英文摘要: The La Plata Basin (LPB) is an important region for social and economic sectors of South America, mainly as a source of water and for agriculture. Regional models are used to analyze changes in precipitation over South America in order to provide more details of the projected changes in specific regions. Results of regional models from the CLARIS-LPB project are analyzed to assess changes and uncertainties in future projections for the LPB compared to the base period. Results from several models are taken into account in order to assess uncertainties. The models agree in projecting more precipitation in the whole basin and in an increased frequency of extreme wet austral summers. The majority of models agree in projections of drier conditions in the upper LPB and an increase in the frequency of extreme dry austral winters and springs. However, in the lower LPB the projections indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme wet winters and springs. In austral autumn the uncertainties are high in the upper LPB. The uncertainties are low regarding increases in the frequency of rainy days in the middle and lower LPB and in the maximum number of consecutive dry days in the upper LPB. The projected patterns of austral summer anomaly precipitation variability obtained from empirical orthogonal function analysis display the same dipole between southern LPB and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone as in the base period, but increased anomalies in the northern center. In the austral winter the only anomaly signal simulated in the base period remains in the future projections, but the maximum variability is displaced southwards. © Inter-Research 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116404
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
De Albuquerque Cavalcanti I.F.,Silveira V.P.. Changes in precipitation over the la Plata Basin, projected by CLARIS-LPB regional models[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,68(2019-02-03)