DOI: 10.3354/cr01365
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84961798918
论文题名: Projected variations in the regional clustering of precipitation stations around Chicago
作者: Um M.-J. ; Markus M. ; Wuebbles D.J. ; Kim Y.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2016
卷: 67, 期: 2 起始页码: 151
结束页码: 163
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Extreme precipitation
; Regional clustering
; Regional frequency analysis
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; cluster analysis
; frequency analysis
; heterogeneity
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; regional climate
; spatial variation
; Chicago
; Illinois
; United States
英文摘要: Precipitation frequency analyses are typically performed for regions or groups of neighboring gauges that represent similar topographic and climatic characteristics. For past precipitation frequency analyses, regions are defined using observed datasets. However, for frequency analysis of projected precipitation, climate change can influence the grouping of sites, such as homogeneous regions of extreme precipitation. Therefore, this study investigates the effect of region definition in the regional frequency analysis (RFA) of extreme precipitation in climate change scenarios. Specifically, we use a statistically downscaled climate modeling-based dataset for Chicago, Illinois, USA and 8 climate change cases (4 models with 2 future climate scenarios). The cases were developed using the asynchronous regional regression model, which focuses on accurately resolving the tails of the probability distributions of precipitation data. For the 40 stations around Chicago, the clustering of precipitation stations varies. The precipitation characteristics, such as the averages of the monthly maximum and annual precipitation and the L-moments of the annual maximum daily precipitation, vary significantly over different time periods and regional clusters. Furthermore, the number of stations that exhibit heterogeneity in terms of their clusters is lower when changes in the clustering of the climate regions are considered than when these changes are ignored. The results of this work illustrate the need to consider changes in the regional clustering of precipitation stations in RFA, which is particularly useful for designing water-related infrastructure in response to climate change. © Inter-Research 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116417
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Um M.-J.,Markus M.,Wuebbles D.J.,et al. Projected variations in the regional clustering of precipitation stations around Chicago[J]. Climate Research,2016-01-01,67(2)