DOI: 10.3354/cr01325
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84945571768
论文题名: Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin
作者: Ferrise R. ; Toscano P. ; Pasqui M. ; Moriondo M. ; Primicerio J. ; Semenov M.A. ; Bindi M.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2015
卷: 65 起始页码: 7
结束页码: 21
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Analogue forecasts
; Crop modelling
; Durum wheat
; Empirical forecasting models
; Mediterranean Basin
; Seasonal forecasts
; Stochastic weather generator
; Yield predictions
Scopus关键词: agricultural modeling
; crop yield
; decision making
; empirical analysis
; growing season
; risk assessment
; uncertainty analysis
; weather forecasting
; wheat
; Mediterranean Sea
; Triticum aestivum
; Triticum turgidum subsp. durum
英文摘要: Uncertainty in weather conditions for the forthcoming growing season influences farmers' decisions, based on their experience of the past climate, regarding the reduction of agricultural risk. Early within-season predictions of grain yield can represent a great opportunity for farmers to improve their management decisions and potentially increase yield and reduce potential risk. This study assessed 3 methods of within-season predictions of durum wheat yield at 10 sites across the Mediterranean Basin. To assess the value of within-season predictions, the model SiriusQuality2 was used to calculate wheat yields over a 9 yr period. Initially, the model was run with observed daily weather to obtain the reference yields. Then, yield predictions were calculated at a monthly time step, starting from 6 mo before harvest, by feeding the model with observed weather from the beginning of the growing season until a specific date and then with synthetic weather constructed using the 3 methods, historical, analogue or empirical, until the end of the growing season. The results showed that it is possible to predict durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin with an accuracy of normalized root means squared error of <20%, from 5 to 6 mo earlier for the historical and empirical methods and 3 mo earlier for the analogue method. Overall, the historical method performed better than the others. Nonetheless, the analogue and empirical methods provided better estimations for low-yielding and high-yielding years, thus indicating great potential to provide more accurate predictions for years that deviate from average conditions. © Inter-Research 2015.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116463
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Ferrise R.,Toscano P.,Pasqui M.,et al. Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin[J]. Climate Research,2015-01-01,65