| DOI: | 10.3354/cr01309
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84932127581
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| 论文题名: | Sea level rise projections for Northern Europe under RCP8.5 |
| 作者: | Grinsted A.; Jevrejeva S.; Riva R.E.M.; Dahl-Jensen D.
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| 刊名: | Climate Research
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| ISSN: | 0936577X
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 64, 期:1 | | 起始页码: | 15
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| 结束页码: | 23
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | British Isles
; Coastal adaptation
; Fennoscandia
; Regional sea level
; Relative sea level
; Tail-risk
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| Scopus关键词: | aquatic community
; glacioisostasy
; ice sheet
; marine environment
; risk factor
; sea level change
; twenty first century
; Atlantic Ocean
; Baltic Sea
; Europe
; North Sea
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| 英文摘要: | Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea. The input to the regional sea level projection is a probabilistic projection of the major components of the global sea level budget. Local sea level rise is partly compensated by vertical land movement from glacial isostatic adjustment. We explore the uncertainties beyond the likely range provided by the IPCC, including the risk and potential rate of marine ice sheet collapse. Our median 21st century relative sea level rise projection is 0.8 m near London and Hamburg, with a relative sea level drop of 0.1 m in the Bay of Bothnia (near Oulu, Finland). Considerable uncertainties remain in both the sea level budget and in the regional expression of sea level rise. The greatest uncertainties are associated with Antarctic ice loss, and uncertainties are skewed towards higher values, with the 95th percentile being characterized by an additional 0.9 m sea level rise above median projections. © The authors 2015. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116491
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Grinsted A.,Jevrejeva S.,Riva R.E.M.,et al. Sea level rise projections for Northern Europe under RCP8.5[J]. Climate Research,2015-01-01,64(1)
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