DOI: 10.3354/cr01281
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84926435522
论文题名: Soybean production in 2025 and 2050 in the southeastern USA based on the SimCLIM and the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean models
作者: Bao Y. ; Hoogenboom G. ; McClendon R. ; Urich P.
刊名: Climate Research
ISSN: 0936577X
出版年: 2015
卷: 63, 期: 1 起始页码: 73
结束页码: 89
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; DSSAT
; General circulation model
; Grain yield
; Irrigated
; Phenology
; Rainfed
Scopus关键词: biogenic emission
; climate effect
; crop production
; crop yield
; cultivar
; emission control
; general circulation model
; greenhouse gas
; irrigation system
; precipitation (chemistry)
; rainfed agriculture
; soybean
; spatiotemporal analysis
; temperature effect
; Georgia
; Tifton
; United States
; Glycine max
英文摘要: This study developed an approach to determine the potential impact of climate change on soybean yield for 2025 and 2050 projections by combining the statistical downscaling model SimCLIM with the crop simulation model CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean. SimCLIM is an integrated assessment model (IAM) which can provide site-specific projections by using statistical downscaling based on 21 general circulation models (GCMs) and 6 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The response of rainfed and irrigated soybean growth and yield to climate patterns based on 3 GCMs and 6 emission scenarios was investigated. Tifton, Georgia, USA (31.48° N, 83.53° W) was selected as an example location. The increase in temperature caused the number of days to maturity to decrease by 1.8 d for 2025 and by 2.3 d for 2050 compared to the reference years for both rainfed and irrigated conditions; however, later planted soybean showed a lower decrease. Increases in precipitation during the soybean growing season and in CO2 concentration led to projected yield increases of 6 to 22% for 2025 and 8 to 35% for 2050 for rainfed conditions. Projected increases for irrigated soybean yield were about 1 to 12% less than for rainfed soya. Generally, Tifton is suitable for both rainfed and irrigated soybean planting based on projections by the 3 GCMs. Farmers might have to shift the planting date to after June 5 to avoid potential heat stress. The cultivars that are suitable for rainfed conditions include AG6702 and S80-P2, while DP5634RR, DP5915RR, and AG6702 are more suitable for irrigated conditions. © Inter-Research 2015 ,. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116506
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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Recommended Citation:
Bao Y.,Hoogenboom G.,McClendon R.,et al. Soybean production in 2025 and 2050 in the southeastern USA based on the SimCLIM and the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean models[J]. Climate Research,2015-01-01,63(1)