DOI: 10.1002/joc.5892
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85056820568
论文题名: Seasonal climate and the onset of the rainy season in western-central Brazil simulated by Global Eta Framework model
作者: Latinović D. ; Chou S.C. ; Rančić M. ; Medeiros G.S. ; Lyra A.D.A.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 3 起始页码: 1429
结束页码: 1445
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Eta model
; GEF
; monsoon onset
; rainy season
; South America
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Tropics
; Geo-potential heights
; Global atmospheric models
; Horizontal resolution
; Long-wave radiation
; Monsoon onset
; Rainy seasons
; Seasonal integration
; South America
; Climate models
英文摘要: The seasonal cycle of precipitation in tropical South America is determined by the monsoonal system. The transition from dry to wet season occurs in austral spring (September–November, SON) when intense convection from northwestern South America rapidly shifts southwards to the southern Amazon Basin and western-central Brazil (WCB) in October and further to the southeast of Brazil in November. This study evaluates ability of the global atmospheric model, Global Eta Framework (GEF), at 25-km horizontal resolution, to simulate the onset of the rainy season in WCB region. The simulations are based on a five-member ensemble seasonal integrations for the years 2011 and 2013. Evaluation of mean global simulated fields, such as 200-hPa wind, 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa temperature and wind, and MSLP at the surface, for the SON period indicates high level of agreement with reanalyses and observations, both in spatial distribution and intensity for most of the variables. The variable of the lowest skill is precipitation, which is overestimated over some tropical oceanic regions and underestimated over tropical continental regions, including South America. The onset of the rainy season is determined using methods based on precipitation and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR). The threshold based on simulated precipitation is also calculated as an alternative method for defining monsoon onset. Comparison of the 5-day averaged values (pentads) of precipitation and OLR of all members of the ensemble and the ensemble mean against the observed data shows the ability of GEF to reproduce the typical pattern of transition from dry to wet season in WCB, although most of ensemble members tend to underestimate precipitation and overestimate OLR. The onset date is delayed for few pentads in the model simulations. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116525
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil; IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Latinović D.,Chou S.C.,Rančić M.,et al. Seasonal climate and the onset of the rainy season in western-central Brazil simulated by Global Eta Framework model[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(3)