DOI: 10.1002/joc.5887
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85056346926
论文题名: Frequency analysis of precipitation extremes under climate change
作者: Mo C. ; Ruan Y. ; He J. ; Jin J. ; Liu P. ; Sun G.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 3 起始页码: 1373
结束页码: 1387
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; frequency analysis
; GEV distribution model
; GPD distribution model
; precipitation extreme
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Maximum likelihood estimation
; Pareto principle
; Rain
; Rain gages
; Distribution models
; Frequency Analysis
; Generalized extreme value
; Generalized Pareto distribution
; GEV distributions
; Maximum likelihood estimate
; Precipitation extremes
; Water infrastructure
; Climate change
英文摘要: Frequency analysis of precipitation extremes is significant for the selection of design rainfalls, which are essential inputs for the design of water infrastructure projects, especially when the climate has changed. Therefore, the objective of this study was to propose a framework for more reasonably analysing the frequency of extreme rainfalls. The proposed framework consists of a maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) method for analysing the parameter trends, a hydrological variation diagnosis system to determine abrupt change times, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models for frequency analysis of precipitation extremes, and an ensemble-methods approach for choosing the most appropriate distributions. The methodology was successfully implemented using a 52-year time series (1963–2014) of rainfall data recorded by eight rain gauges in Chengbi River basin (south China). The results show that the rainfall series mutated in 1993 and that the entire data set could be divided into two slices (1963–1992 and 1993–2014). Climate change was found to have some impacts on the precipitation extremes: the extreme rainfall value and the parameters of GEV and GPD were variable in the context of climate change. Furthermore, the GPD distribution model outperformed the GEV distribution model. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116533
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning, China; Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of the Ministry of Education, Nanning, China; Guangxi Key Laboratories of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Nanning, China; School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, China
Recommended Citation:
Mo C.,Ruan Y.,He J.,et al. Frequency analysis of precipitation extremes under climate change[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(3)