globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5882
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85056164772
Title:
Downscaling and projection of summer rainfall in Eastern China using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model
Author: Guo L.; Jiang Z.; Ding M.; Chen W.; Li L.
Source Publication: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
Publishing Year: 2019
Volume: 39, Issue:3
pages begin: 1319
pages end: 1330
Language: 英语
Keyword: daily precipitation ; future projection ; global warming of 1.5 and 2°C ; nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model ; statistical downscaling
Scopus Keyword: Climate models ; Global warming ; Probability distributions ; Rain ; Daily precipitations ; Future projections ; Non-homogeneous ; Nonhomogeneous hidden markov models (NHMM) ; Occurrence probability ; Precipitation intensity ; Quantitative assessments ; Statistical downscaling ; Hidden Markov models
English Abstract: A nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) is used to stochastically simulate summer (June–August) daily precipitations in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River in Eastern China, with driving forcing from three global climate models (GCMs). Simulations cover the historical period from 1961 to 2005 and from 2006 to 2100 following the RCP4.5 scenario. The model is first evaluated against data from the regional observation network. The results show that NHMM effectively enhances the ability of GCMs in simulating summer daily rainfall in the region. For future projection at different time horizons of the 21st century, the spectral distribution of regional precipitations (in function of their intensity) shows consistent changes with a decrease of occurrence probability for light rain (<10 mm/day) and an increase for heavy rain (>10 mm/day). Among variables of interest, total precipitation (PRCPTOT), precipitation intensity, the number of rainy days for daily precipitation exceeding 10 mm (R10mm) and 95th percentile of precipitation (P95), all show a gradually increasing trend in the 21st century, and geographically an eastward gradient with smaller increase (or even weak decrease) for the west and larger increase for the east. It is noted that obvious changes occur in the eastern region with 95% significance level, and PRCPTOT or R10mm increases by 40–60% in the late 21st century. Further quantitative assessment is performed for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C. The half-degree additional warming makes R10mm change by −3.7, 2.4 and 12.1% over western, central and eastern regions, respectively. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society
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Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116542
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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Affiliation: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Maanshan Meteorological Observatory, Maanshan Meteorological Bureau, Maanshan, China; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, École Normale Supérieure, École Polytechnique, Paris, France

Recommended Citation:
Guo L.,Jiang Z.,Ding M.,et al. Downscaling and projection of summer rainfall in Eastern China using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(3)
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