DOI: 10.1002/joc.5864
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054537704
论文题名: The impact of global warming on sea surface temperature based El Niño–Southern Oscillation monitoring indices
作者: Turkington T. ; Timbal B. ; Rahmat R.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 2 起始页码: 1092
结束页码: 1103
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; ENSO
; Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
; sea surface temperatures
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Uncertainty analysis
; ENSO
; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations
; Largest deviation
; Outgoing longwave radiation
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Southern oscillation
; Uncertainty in measurement
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; climate change
; climatology
; decadal variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific are commonly used indicators for diagnosing the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Global warming has the potential to affect these indicators so that the indicators provide a less representative picture of El Niño/La Niña developments. The SST trend has not been uniform across the Tropics; hence, accounting for local trends may not account for widespread warming. A method is proposed to remove tropical SST trend from the Niño3.4 index, one of the most common indices for monitoring ENSO. The trend and climatology analysis periods are selected based on the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The climatology period contains an equal number of years with positive and negative phases (1976–2014), while the trend is estimated over a longer period with no significant trend in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (1962–2011). Furthermore, the trend is estimated using three SST datasets and sampling of the time period to account for uncertainty in measurements. Once the tropical trend is removed, new Niño3.4 values are calculated and a new ENSO classification proposed to re-classify ENSO events since 1976. The recent 3 years with the largest deviation due to global warming (2014–2016), once corrected contain the full ENSO cycle with neutral, strong El Niño, and La Niña years. These events based on the new classification align well with other ENSO predictors, such as outgoing longwave radiation and zonal wind at 850 hPa, particularly for marginal cases such as the 2016 La Niña event. These results have implications for how ENSO is monitored and predicted in relation to climate change. © 2018 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116564
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Services Singapore, Singapore
Recommended Citation:
Turkington T.,Timbal B.,Rahmat R.. The impact of global warming on sea surface temperature based El Niño–Southern Oscillation monitoring indices[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(2)