DOI: 10.1002/joc.5856
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054495225
论文题名: A new and flexible rainy season definition: Validation for the Greater Horn of Africa and application to rainfall trends
作者: Seregina L.S. ; Fink A.H. ; van der Linden R. ; Elagib N.A. ; Pinto J.G.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 2 起始页码: 989
结束页码: 1012
语种: 英语
英文关键词: annual cycle
; CHIRPS
; climate classification
; onset
; precipitation
; rain gauges
; rainy seasons
; trends
Scopus关键词: Chirp modulation
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rain gages
; Annual cycle
; CHIRPS
; onset
; Rain gauges
; Rainy seasons
; trends
; Rain
; annual cycle
; calibration
; classification
; climate modeling
; data set
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; raingauge
; trend analysis
; Horn of Africa
英文摘要: Previous studies on observed or projected rainfall trends for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) generally focus on calendric 3-month periods, and thus partly neglect the complexity of rainfall seasonality in this topographically heterogeneous region. This study introduces a novel and flexible methodology to identify the rainfall seasonality, the onset, cessation and duration of the rainy seasons and the associated uncertainties from rainfall time series. The definition is applied to the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) satellite product and an extensive rain gauge data set. A strong agreement with known seasonal dynamics in the region and the commonly used calendric rainy seasons is demonstrated. Compared to the latter definition, a clear added value is found for the new approach as it captures the local rainfall features (associated with, for example, the sea breeze), thus facilitating evaluations across rainfall seasonality borders. While previously known trends are qualitatively confirmed, trends are amplified in some regions using the flexible definition method. Notably, a drying trend in Tanzania and Democratic Republic of Congo and a wetting trend in central Sudan and parts of eastern Ethiopia and Kenya can be detected. The trends are regionally associated with changes in rainy season cessation. CHIRPS and station trend patterns are consistent over larger regions of the GHA, but differ in regions with known rainfall contributions from warmer cloud tops. Discrepancies are found in coastal and topographically complex areas, and regions with an unstable seasonality of rainfall. As expected, CHIRPS shows spatially more homogeneous trends compared to station data. The more precise definition of the rainy season facilitates the assessment of rainfall characteristics like intensity, rainfall amounts or temporal shifts of rainy seasons. This novel methodology could also provide a more adequate calibration of climate model simulations thus potentially enabling more realistic climate change projections for the GHA. © 2018 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116565
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Germany; Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany; Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics (ITT), Technische Hochschule Köln (University of Applied Sciences), Cologne, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Seregina L.S.,Fink A.H.,van der Linden R.,et al. A new and flexible rainy season definition: Validation for the Greater Horn of Africa and application to rainfall trends[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(2)