globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5838
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85053457498
Title:
Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM
Author: Wen S.; Wang Y.; Su B.; Gao C.; Chen X.; Jiang T.; Tao H.; Fischer T.; Wang G.; Zhai J.
Source Publication: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
Publishing Year: 2019
Volume: 39, Issue:2
pages begin: 724
pages end: 737
Language: 英语
Keyword: 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming ; China ; economic loss ; influential tropical cyclone
Scopus Keyword: Global warming ; Hurricanes ; Losses ; Rain ; Storms ; Tropics ; Wind ; China ; Damage functions ; Economic loss ; Gross domestic products ; Meteorological data ; Regional climate modeling ; Socio-economics ; Tropical cyclone ; Climate models ; climate modeling ; economic impact ; estimation method ; global warming ; Gross Domestic Product ; rainfall ; regional climate ; tropical cyclone ; wind velocity ; China
English Abstract: Adverse impacts and increasing economic losses from tropical cyclones (TCs) are a major focus in respect to the potential global warming of 1.5 °C or even 2.0 °C. Based on observed meteorological data and county-scale loss records, loss-inducing rainfall and wind speed thresholds are identified using the regional climate model CCLM to project future TC events in China. An established damage function is combined with future gross domestic product predictions under five shared socio-economic pathways. At the 1.5 °C warming level, normalized TC losses will be four times higher than in the reference period (1986–2005). At the 2.0 °C warming level, a sevenfold increase is projected. Relative to the 1.5 °C warming level, TCs will become more frequent under the 2.0 °C scenario, especially along the southeast coast of China. Nearly 0.2–0.5% of the increase in gross domestic product might be offset by TC losses between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels, and the single highest TC loss at 2.0 °C may double that at 1.5 °C, with a larger affected area and more severe rainstorms and wind speeds. Rainfall is attributed more often to TC losses than wind speed. Limiting global warming at 1.5 °C would avoid an estimated increase in TC losses of more than 120 billion CNY annually. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society
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Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116577
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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Affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China; University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China; Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls University, Tübingen, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Wen S.,Wang Y.,Su B.,et al. Estimation of economic losses from tropical cyclones in China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(2)
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