DOI: 10.1002/joc.5830
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052964836
论文题名: Variability of seasonal precipitation extremes over China and their associations with large-scale ocean–atmosphere oscillations
作者: Chen A. ; He X. ; Guan H. ; Zhang X.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期: 2 起始页码: 613
结束页码: 628
语种: 英语
英文关键词: China
; empirical orthogonal functions
; seasonal precipitation extremes
; stepwise variable selection
; teleconnection
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Drought
; Orthogonal functions
; Surface waters
; China
; Empirical Orthogonal Function
; Seasonal precipitations
; Teleconnections
; Variable selection
; Oceanography
; empirical orthogonal function analysis
; extreme event
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; spatial variation
; teleconnection
; temporal variation
; China
英文摘要: The spatiotemporal variations of seasonal precipitation extremes during 1963–2013 over China and the possible teleconnections with large-scale ocean–atmosphere indices are investigated by using the rotated empirical orthogonal functions, cross-correlation analysis and stepwise variable selection methods. Results show that northwest China experiences the most frequent dry events but exhibits a wetting tendency in all seasons, while in south and central China, extreme wet conditions are remarkable in seasons except for winter but a drying tendency is found in spring and autumn. Precipitation extremes in four different seasons are influenced by the different combinations of large-scale climate indices with different time lags, and their regional responses are complex when the climate indices are at different phases, such as winter heavy precipitation (R95p) in south of Nanling Mountain generally tends to be increased by the simultaneous positive El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) over South China Sea and positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) with 5-month lag, while summer R95p in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin be decreased by the simultaneous negative SSTs over Bay of Bengal and positive AO with 9-month lag. Besides, the dominant climate indices identified by teleconnection analysis can partly explain the temporal changes of seasonal extreme precipitation in China, which can be confirmed by very similar fluctuation in the oscillatory patterns of eight chosen couples with higher correlation coefficient, and their explanation skill is more powerful in sensitive areas highlighted in the leading spatial modes of corresponding precipitation index. Moreover, this explanation skill generally enhances as the cumulative contribution of leading four rotated modes to total variance of the target variable over whole study area increases. In addition, the precipitation indices related to precipitation amount can be better explained than those related to wet or dry spell by identified dominant climate indices. © 2018 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116583
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: College of Resources and Environmental Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China; College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia; Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application, Changsha, China
Recommended Citation:
Chen A.,He X.,Guan H.,et al. Variability of seasonal precipitation extremes over China and their associations with large-scale ocean–atmosphere oscillations[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01,39(2)