DOI: 10.1002/joc.6042
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85062537698
论文题名: Change point analysis of global temperature records
作者: Yu M. ; Ruggieri E.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian change point
; climate change
; GISTEMP
; HadCRUT4
; temperature anomalies
; time series
; zonal bands
Scopus关键词: Land surface temperature
; Time series
; Change-points
; GISTEMP
; HadCRUT4
; Temperature anomaly
; zonal bands
; Climate change
英文摘要: Climate change is the result of complex interactions between a wide array of climatic variables. Over a long period of time, climatic patterns can shift, possibly multiple times. Abrupt shifts that occur over a relatively short period of time are known as change points. During these intervals, different climatic variables may undergo dramatic shifts posing serious consequences for many biological and physical systems. In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian algorithm for detecting the location of change points in time series data. In particular, we utilize our method to analyse five different global surface temperature anomaly data sets, as well as temperature records associated with land, ocean, and different zonal bands in an attempt to identify common features of these data sets. Change points in the five global records were detected between 1902–1917, 1936–1945, and 1963–1976, but do these change points also manifest themselves across other parts of the globe? Our analysis indicates that the timing of change points is consistent from one record to the next, but not all change points appear in all records. In particular, there were more change points in the ocean than on land, and also more change points in southern latitudes than in northern latitudes. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116602
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, College of the Holy Cross, Worcester, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yu M.,Ruggieri E.. Change point analysis of global temperature records[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01