DOI: 10.1002/joc.5999
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85062331474
论文题名: ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon under changing climate
作者: Roy I. ; Tedeschi R.G. ; Collins M.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: canonical ENSO
; CMIP5
; Modoki ENSO
; RCP8.5
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Rain
; canonical ENSO
; CMIP5
; Decomposition technique
; Historical simulation
; Indian summer monsoon
; Indian summer monsoon rainfall
; Modoki ENSO
; RCP8.5
; Climatology
英文摘要: The teleconnection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall is analysed in CMIP5 simulations in both historical and future scenario. A subset of models is selected, based on their ability to simulate mean rainfall and the ENSO teleconnection in the historical simulations, and those are used to examine future predictions in the central northeast region of India. For canonical and mixed canonical Modoki ENSO events, the rainfall teleconnection is spatially extended over most of India in the future. For pure Modoki ENSO events, the teleconnection disappears, and practically no influence is detected in any parts of India. Analysis of zonal wind at 200 mb indicates that for the Modoki events, there is a larger spread of changes across the models, while for canonical events there is more inter-model consistency. A rainfall decomposition technique reveals a battle between changes in circulation which act to weaken the rainfall teleconnection and changes in moisture change which act to strengthen it. The picture is most consistent in the sub-ensemble of models in the central northeast region but less consistent in regions covering southern India. © 2019 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116610
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centro de Previsão do Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São Paulo, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Roy I.,Tedeschi R.G.,Collins M.. ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon under changing climate[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01