DOI: 10.1002/joc.6003
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85061901376
论文题名: Pacific sea surface temperature linkages with Tanzania's multi-season drying trends
作者: Harrison L. ; Funk C. ; McNally A. ; Shukla S. ; Husak G.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; CMIP5
; drought
; Pacific
; precipitation
; sea surface temperature
; Tanzania
; trends
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Drought
; Drying
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Regression analysis
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; CMIP5
; Pacific
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Tanzania
; trends
; Oceanography
英文摘要: During 1999–2014, Tanzania experienced below average precipitation in two important seasons: December to February (DJF) in the south and during March to June (MAMJ) in the northeast. We explore DJF and MAMJ precipitation in the areas with drying trends and examine their relationships with anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indo-Pacific and corresponding circulation patterns. At seasonal time scales, precipitation in DJF and MAMJ trend areas appears inversely related to diabatic forcing in the equatorial Pacific. Dominant influence for droughts in DJF is eastern Pacific SST while for droughts in MAMJ it is West Pacific SST. A bivariate regression model with West Pacific and Niño3.4 region SST as predictors is found to recreate multidecadal DJF variability after the 1950s and the extreme drying in MAMJ during the 2000s. The regression model coefficients also indicate differential eastern versus western Pacific forcing for DJF versus MAMJ. Thus, we suggest that recent La Niña-like conditions, characterized by an enhanced Pacific SST gradient due to cooling in the eastern Pacific and warming in the western Pacific, played a substantial role in Tanzania's recent multi-season drying trends. SST change scenarios (difference between 2023–2037 and 2000–2014 means) based on CMIP5 projections and observed trends illustrate the uncertainty of future precipitation outcomes, as well as the potential implications of contrasting linkages to eastern versus western Pacific SSTs. These scenarios are mainly optimistic for the DJF southern Tanzania trend area, because it appears dominated by Niño3.4 cooling at both seasonal and decadal time scales. Conversely, our scenarios are quite pessimistic for the MAMJ northeastern Tanzania trend area, because we find a dominant negative influence of warming West Pacific SST. © 2019 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116614
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Climate Hazards Center, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States; U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, SD, United States; Earth Systems Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Harrison L.,Funk C.,McNally A.,et al. Pacific sea surface temperature linkages with Tanzania's multi-season drying trends[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01