globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5994
Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85061896838
Downscaling climate change of water availability, sediment yield and extreme events: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin
Author: Zhang R.; Corte-Real J.; Moreira M.; Kilsby C.; Birkinshaw S.; Burton A.; Fowler H.J.; Forsythe N.; Nunes J.P.; Sampaio E.; dos Santos F.L.; Mourato S.
Source Publication: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
Publishing Year: 2019
Language: 英语
Keyword: extreme events ; hydrological impact assessment ; Mediterranean climate region ; sediment yield ; SHETRAN ; water availability
Scopus Keyword: Catchments ; Climate models ; Curve fitting ; Greenhouse gases ; Rain ; Runoff ; Sediment transport ; Stochastic models ; Stochastic systems ; Extreme events ; Hydrological impact assessments ; Mediterranean climates ; Sediment yields ; SHETRAN ; Water availability ; Climate change
English Abstract: A robust hydrological impact assessment is indispensable for mitigation and adaptation planning. This study presents an integrated modelling methodology for evaluating climate change impacts on water availability, sediment yield and extreme events at the catchment scale. We propose the use of the spatial–temporal Neyman–Scott Rectangular Pulses (STNSRP) model—RainSim V3 and the rainfall conditioned daily weather generator—ICAAM-WG, as well as the physically based spatially distributed hydrological model—SHETRAN. The change factor approach was applied for obtaining unbiased rainfall and temperature statistics. The ICAAM-WG was developed based on the modified Climate Research Unit daily Weather Generator (CRU-WG). The methodology is proposed to generate synthetic series of hourly precipitation, daily temperature and potential evapotranspiration, hourly runoff and hourly sediment discharge. We demonstrated a possible application in a 705-km 2 Mediterranean climate basin in southern Portugal. The case study showed the evaluation of future climate change impacts on annual and monthly water balance components and sediment yield, annual and seasonal flow duration curves, empirical extreme value distributions and the theoretical fits. It did not consider the possible uncertainty due to the limit of computational resources. The methodology can be well justified as follows: (a) the use of synthetic hourly instead of daily precipitation enables SHETRAN to be more capable of reproducing reliable storm runoff processes and the consequent sediment transport processes; (b) the use of SHETRAN makes possible the impact assessment to be accessible for any model grid square within the study basin; (c) the use of a statistical–stochastic downscaling method facilitates the generation of the synthetic series with unlimited length. It makes possible robust hydrological impact assessments if uncertainties related to the global climate model, regional climate model, greenhouse gas emission scenario, downscaling method, hydrological model and observational data are considered. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society
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Document Type: 期刊论文
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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Affiliation: Institute of Mediterranean Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (ICAAM), University of Évora, Évora, Portugal; Department of hydrology, CEMADEN-National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Aeronautics and Transports, University Lusófona of Humanities and Technologies, Research Unit DREAMS, Lisbon, Portugal; CESAM-Centre for Environmental and Marine Research and Department of Environment and Planning, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal; Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory, School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom; CE3C-Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal; School of Technology and Management, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria, Leiria, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Zhang R.,Corte-Real J.,Moreira M.,et al. Downscaling climate change of water availability, sediment yield and extreme events: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01
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