DOI: 10.1002/joc.6021
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85061439355
论文题名: Dynamical downscaling of CSIRO-Mk3.6 seasonal forecasts over Iran with the regional climate model version 4
作者: Alizadeh-Choobari O.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CSIRO-Mk3.6
; dynamical downscaling
; El Niño-Southern Oscillation
; RegCM4
; seasonal forecasting
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Economics
; Errors
; Forecasting
; CSIRO-Mk3.6
; Dynamical downscaling
; RegCM4
; Seasonal forecasting
; Southern oscillation
; Climate models
英文摘要: Providing reliable seasonal forecasts of the climate system is essential to make decisions for resource management and planning, such that advances in seasonal forecasting by dynamical downscaling can bring significant socio-economic benefits. A finer resolution Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) is nested within the large-scale fields of the coarser CSIRO-Mk3.6 general circulation model (GCM) to dynamically downscale outputs of CSIRO-Mk3.6 over Iran in Southwest Asia. To this end, 120 6-month-long simulations were conducted. Starting from January 2007, each simulation run forwards 1 month compared to the previous run, altogether covering the period 2007–2016. Comparing model results with ERA-Interim and CRU datasets indicated that RegCM4 is able to add some value to the driving CSIRO-Mk3.6, particularly in low lands of central to eastern Iran where CSIRO-Mk3.6 depicts significant cold biases. Nevertheless, relatively large biases in simulations of RegCM4 are found over some regions in Iran caused by propagation of errors from the driving GCM. It is also found that errors in prediction of different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the driving CSIRO-Mk3.6 significantly degrade the nested model simulations, such that associated with La Niña and El Niño, large warm and cold biases are found, respectively, over Iran. Improvements should be made in physics of the CSIRO-Mk3.6 GCM to better simulate different phases of ENSO. Results also indicated that performance of RegCM4 in simulating 2-m temperature is strongly related to the forecast lead time, such that model errors generally become larger when the forecast time increases. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/116627
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
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作者单位: Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Recommended Citation:
Alizadeh-Choobari O.. Dynamical downscaling of CSIRO-Mk3.6 seasonal forecasts over Iran with the regional climate model version 4[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2019-01-01